Trader consensus around six or seven magnitude 5.5-or-greater earthquakes this week reflects the typical week-to-week variability in global seismicity tracked by the USGS. Earthquake rates follow a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, so independent tectonic events and aftershock sequences can easily shift totals by several events even without a major mainshock. Recent monitoring shows no large clusters along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other high-rate zones, keeping counts near the lower end of historical weekly averages. Final resolution will depend on the USGS comprehensive catalog through May 17, with official magnitude and location assignments determining whether totals settle at six, seven, or move higher if late aftershocks are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
7 35.7%
6 35%
8 11.0%
9 7.1%
$113,086 Vol.
$113,086 Vol.
May 17, 2026
≤3
<1%
4
1%
5
1%
6
35%
7
31%
8
15%
9
7%
>9
3%
7 35.7%
6 35%
8 11.0%
9 7.1%
$113,086 Vol.
$113,086 Vol.
May 17, 2026
≤3
$49,833 Vol.
<1%
4
$19,210 Vol.
1%
5
$17,774 Vol.
1%
6
$1,416 Vol.
35%
7
$1,458 Vol.
31%
8
$3,965 Vol.
15%
9
$3,599 Vol.
7%
>9
$15,831 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus around six or seven magnitude 5.5-or-greater earthquakes this week reflects the typical week-to-week variability in global seismicity tracked by the USGS. Earthquake rates follow a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, so independent tectonic events and aftershock sequences can easily shift totals by several events even without a major mainshock. Recent monitoring shows no large clusters along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other high-rate zones, keeping counts near the lower end of historical weekly averages. Final resolution will depend on the USGS comprehensive catalog through May 17, with official magnitude and location assignments determining whether totals settle at six, seven, or move higher if late aftershocks are confirmed.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$113,086End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus around six or seven magnitude 5.5-or-greater earthquakes this week reflects the typical week-to-week variability in global seismicity tracked by the USGS. Earthquake rates follow a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, so independent tectonic events and aftershock sequences can easily shift totals by several events even without a major mainshock. Recent monitoring shows no large clusters along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other high-rate zones, keeping counts near the lower end of historical weekly averages. Final resolution will depend on the USGS comprehensive catalog through May 17, with official magnitude and location assignments determining whether totals settle at six, seven, or move higher if late aftershocks are confirmed.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$113,086End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around six or seven magnitude 5.5-or-greater earthquakes this week reflects the typical week-to-week variability in global seismicity tracked by the USGS. Earthquake rates follow a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, so independent tectonic events and aftershock sequences can easily shift totals by several events even without a major mainshock. Recent monitoring shows no large clusters along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other high-rate zones, keeping counts near the lower end of historical weekly averages. Final resolution will depend on the USGS comprehensive catalog through May 17, with official magnitude and location assignments determining whether totals settle at six, seven, or move higher if late aftershocks are confirmed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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