SpaceX Starship reached orbit for the first time during Flight 14 on September 28, 2026, successfully deploying Starlink V3 satellites before a controlled splashdown, but neither stage achieved a tower catch or rapid reflight. These results underscore persistent gaps in demonstrating full orbital reusability, including upper-stage recovery, propellant transfer, and aircraft-like turnaround times needed for operational missions. Historical timeline slips, combined with the need for multiple successful catches and reflights before 2027, underpin trader consensus favoring "No" at 73.5%. Key near-term catalysts include planned ship catch attempts and potential early 2027 reflights that could shift sentiment if milestones accelerate.