Recent USGS data indicate one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake has already occurred within the May 11–17 window, positioning the single-event outcome as the clear leader at 81.5% implied probability. Global catalogs show these events follow a Poisson distribution averaging one to two per week, and current seismic conditions lack active aftershock sequences, fault swarms, or elevated strain release that would push the total higher. With the period nearing its close and no additional events reported through mid-May 16, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of two or more in the remaining hours, consistent with typical quiet intervals between major quakes. Final resolution hinges on official USGS catalog updates confirming the exact count.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
1 79%
2 15%
3 3.5%
0 <1%
$48,835 Vol.
$48,835 Vol.
May 17, 2026
0
1%
1
79%
2
15%
3
4%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
1 79%
2 15%
3 3.5%
0 <1%
$48,835 Vol.
$48,835 Vol.
May 17, 2026
0
$33,284 Vol.
1%
1
$4,702 Vol.
79%
2
$2,600 Vol.
15%
3
$1,806 Vol.
4%
4
$3,435 Vol.
<1%
5
$1,420 Vol.
<1%
>5
$1,588 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent USGS data indicate one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake has already occurred within the May 11–17 window, positioning the single-event outcome as the clear leader at 81.5% implied probability. Global catalogs show these events follow a Poisson distribution averaging one to two per week, and current seismic conditions lack active aftershock sequences, fault swarms, or elevated strain release that would push the total higher. With the period nearing its close and no additional events reported through mid-May 16, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of two or more in the remaining hours, consistent with typical quiet intervals between major quakes. Final resolution hinges on official USGS catalog updates confirming the exact count.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ET
Volume
$48,835End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent USGS data indicate one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake has already occurred within the May 11–17 window, positioning the single-event outcome as the clear leader at 81.5% implied probability. Global catalogs show these events follow a Poisson distribution averaging one to two per week, and current seismic conditions lack active aftershock sequences, fault swarms, or elevated strain release that would push the total higher. With the period nearing its close and no additional events reported through mid-May 16, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of two or more in the remaining hours, consistent with typical quiet intervals between major quakes. Final resolution hinges on official USGS catalog updates confirming the exact count.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$48,835End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent USGS data indicate one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake has already occurred within the May 11–17 window, positioning the single-event outcome as the clear leader at 81.5% implied probability. Global catalogs show these events follow a Poisson distribution averaging one to two per week, and current seismic conditions lack active aftershock sequences, fault swarms, or elevated strain release that would push the total higher. With the period nearing its close and no additional events reported through mid-May 16, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of two or more in the remaining hours, consistent with typical quiet intervals between major quakes. Final resolution hinges on official USGS catalog updates confirming the exact count.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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