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How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

icon for How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

≤8 42%

9 13%

10 13%

11 12%

Polymarket

$89,205 Vol.

≤8 42%

9 13%

10 13%

11 12%

Polymarket

$89,205 Vol.

≤8

$25,263 Vol.

50%

9

$17,436 Vol.

23%

10

$8,251 Vol.

22%

11

$27,909 Vol.

12%

12

$4,253 Vol.

10%

13

$2,621 Vol.

4%

14+

$3,472 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS seismic catalogs confirm just five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through May 13, 2026—M7.1 off Sabah, Malaysia (Feb. 22), M7.5 off Tonga (March 24), M7.3 off Vanuatu (March 30), M7.4 off North Maluku, Indonesia (April 1), and M7.4 off Iwate, Japan (April 20)—positioning ≤8 as the market-implied frontrunner at 46.5% amid a below-average pace versus the historical global rate of 15–20 such events annually. No M7+ quakes have struck in the past 23 days, reflecting stable tectonic activity along major plate boundaries without notable foreshock clusters or strain anomalies in USGS monitoring. With 48 days remaining to June 30, traders anticipate 2–5 more based on Poisson-distributed historical patterns, concentrating odds on 9 (29%) and 10 (31.5%) while pricing 14+ below 3%; continuous real-time USGS updates could shift sentiment if subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire activate.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$89,205
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS seismic catalogs confirm just five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through May 13, 2026—M7.1 off Sabah, Malaysia (Feb. 22), M7.5 off Tonga (March 24), M7.3 off Vanuatu (March 30), M7.4 off North Maluku, Indonesia (April 1), and M7.4 off Iwate, Japan (April 20)—positioning ≤8 as the market-implied frontrunner at 46.5% amid a below-average pace versus the historical global rate of 15–20 such events annually. No M7+ quakes have struck in the past 23 days, reflecting stable tectonic activity along major plate boundaries without notable foreshock clusters or strain anomalies in USGS monitoring. With 48 days remaining to June 30, traders anticipate 2–5 more based on Poisson-distributed historical patterns, concentrating odds on 9 (29%) and 10 (31.5%) while pricing 14+ below 3%; continuous real-time USGS updates could shift sentiment if subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire activate.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$89,205
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "≤8" at 50%, followed by "9" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)" has generated $89.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)" is "≤8" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "9" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.