**High preliminary counts from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) through late September 2026—already totaling 1,443 tornadoes—drive the strong market consensus for 1,250+.** This exceeds historical annual averages of roughly 1,200–1,300 and recent years like 2025 (1,383 actual), with elevated activity concentrated in March–June amid favorable atmospheric conditions tracked by NOAA. Final verified counts undergo rigorous review and can be revised downward from preliminary local storm reports, yet even conservative projections for the remaining months place totals well above the threshold. Only substantial downward adjustments combined with unusually quiet fall and winter activity could realistically shift outcomes lower.