Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a May 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline at 40.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 1.10–1.14ºC at 33.0%, reflecting uncertainty in the emerging El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center recently raised El Niño odds to 61% for May–July 2026, up from neutral conditions through early 2026, potentially amplifying temperatures after April's 1.43ºC anomaly—joint third-warmest on Copernicus ERA5 records. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread on El Niño intensity, lingering La Niña effects from winter, and early May sea surface temperature observations. New Copernicus seasonal outlooks and the June climate bulletin will refine trader positioning amid inherent forecasting variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 41%
1.10–1.14ºC 32%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
<1.10ºC 11%
$22,165 Vol.
$22,165 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
11%
1.10–1.14ºC
32%
1.15–1.19ºC
41%
1.20–1.24ºC
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
6%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 41%
1.10–1.14ºC 32%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
<1.10ºC 11%
$22,165 Vol.
$22,165 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$9,423 Vol.
11%
1.10–1.14ºC
$1,011 Vol.
32%
1.15–1.19ºC
$2,111 Vol.
41%
1.20–1.24ºC
$1,761 Vol.
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,790 Vol.
6%
>1.29ºC
$5,069 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a May 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline at 40.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 1.10–1.14ºC at 33.0%, reflecting uncertainty in the emerging El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center recently raised El Niño odds to 61% for May–July 2026, up from neutral conditions through early 2026, potentially amplifying temperatures after April's 1.43ºC anomaly—joint third-warmest on Copernicus ERA5 records. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread on El Niño intensity, lingering La Niña effects from winter, and early May sea surface temperature observations. New Copernicus seasonal outlooks and the June climate bulletin will refine trader positioning amid inherent forecasting variability.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$22,165End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a May 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline at 40.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 1.10–1.14ºC at 33.0%, reflecting uncertainty in the emerging El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center recently raised El Niño odds to 61% for May–July 2026, up from neutral conditions through early 2026, potentially amplifying temperatures after April's 1.43ºC anomaly—joint third-warmest on Copernicus ERA5 records. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread on El Niño intensity, lingering La Niña effects from winter, and early May sea surface temperature observations. New Copernicus seasonal outlooks and the June climate bulletin will refine trader positioning amid inherent forecasting variability.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$22,165End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a May 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline at 40.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 1.10–1.14ºC at 33.0%, reflecting uncertainty in the emerging El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center recently raised El Niño odds to 61% for May–July 2026, up from neutral conditions through early 2026, potentially amplifying temperatures after April's 1.43ºC anomaly—joint third-warmest on Copernicus ERA5 records. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread on El Niño intensity, lingering La Niña effects from winter, and early May sea surface temperature observations. New Copernicus seasonal outlooks and the June climate bulletin will refine trader positioning amid inherent forecasting variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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