Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast ensembles for Milan's highest temperature on May 15, with 15°C leading at 26.5% amid implied odds clustered around 14–16°C. Latest ECMWF and GFS model runs project daytime highs near 15°C under persistent cloudy conditions and scattered showers from an Atlantic low-pressure system influencing northern Italy, following a recent cold front that brought hail, strong winds, and below-seasonal temperatures over the past week—far cooler than May's typical 22°C average. Ensemble spreads highlight variability in cloud cover and precipitation timing, potentially shifting the peak by 1–2°C; new model updates expected within 24 hours could refine this, alongside ARPA Lombardia observations at resolution stations like Milan Linate Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on May 15?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 15?
15°C 31%
16°C 27%
14°C 24%
17°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
6%
14°C
24%
15°C
31%
16°C
27%
17°C
11%
18°C
6%
19°C or higher
2%
15°C 31%
16°C 27%
14°C 24%
17°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
9°C or below
$780 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,480 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,124 Vol.
1%
12°C
$953 Vol.
1%
13°C
$335 Vol.
6%
14°C
$510 Vol.
24%
15°C
$430 Vol.
31%
16°C
$422 Vol.
27%
17°C
$459 Vol.
11%
18°C
$1,100 Vol.
6%
19°C or higher
$665 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast ensembles for Milan's highest temperature on May 15, with 15°C leading at 26.5% amid implied odds clustered around 14–16°C. Latest ECMWF and GFS model runs project daytime highs near 15°C under persistent cloudy conditions and scattered showers from an Atlantic low-pressure system influencing northern Italy, following a recent cold front that brought hail, strong winds, and below-seasonal temperatures over the past week—far cooler than May's typical 22°C average. Ensemble spreads highlight variability in cloud cover and precipitation timing, potentially shifting the peak by 1–2°C; new model updates expected within 24 hours could refine this, alongside ARPA Lombardia observations at resolution stations like Milan Linate Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$8,228End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast ensembles for Milan's highest temperature on May 15, with 15°C leading at 26.5% amid implied odds clustered around 14–16°C. Latest ECMWF and GFS model runs project daytime highs near 15°C under persistent cloudy conditions and scattered showers from an Atlantic low-pressure system influencing northern Italy, following a recent cold front that brought hail, strong winds, and below-seasonal temperatures over the past week—far cooler than May's typical 22°C average. Ensemble spreads highlight variability in cloud cover and precipitation timing, potentially shifting the peak by 1–2°C; new model updates expected within 24 hours could refine this, alongside ARPA Lombardia observations at resolution stations like Milan Linate Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,228End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast ensembles for Milan's highest temperature on May 15, with 15°C leading at 26.5% amid implied odds clustered around 14–16°C. Latest ECMWF and GFS model runs project daytime highs near 15°C under persistent cloudy conditions and scattered showers from an Atlantic low-pressure system influencing northern Italy, following a recent cold front that brought hail, strong winds, and below-seasonal temperatures over the past week—far cooler than May's typical 22°C average. Ensemble spreads highlight variability in cloud cover and precipitation timing, potentially shifting the peak by 1–2°C; new model updates expected within 24 hours could refine this, alongside ARPA Lombardia observations at resolution stations like Milan Linate Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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