ARPA Lombardia's latest forecast bulletin highlights an incoming cold air mass and unstable weather pattern over northern Italy on May 14, driving trader consensus toward mid-teens Celsius highs in Milan, with 16°C and 17°C nearly tied at 32.5% and 30.5% implied probabilities. Prevalent cloud cover, scattered showers, and possible isolated thunderstorms from northern sectors will suppress peak heating, as confirmed by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles showing maxima clustering 15–18°C amid light easterly winds. Differentiating factors include the precise timing of diurnal maximum before any convective onset and Milan's urban heat island effect, which could nudge outcomes higher; final high-resolution updates expected overnight will refine this close contest before resolution via official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on May 14?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 14?
17°C 35%
16°C 31%
18°C 23%
19°C 12.8%
NEW
$25,946 Vol.
NEW
$25,946 Vol.
May 14, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
5%
16°C
31%
17°C
35%
18°C
23%
19°C
13%
20°C or higher
2%
17°C 35%
16°C 31%
18°C 23%
19°C 12.8%
NEW
$25,946 Vol.
NEW
$25,946 Vol.
May 14, 2026
10°C or below
$1,036 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$2,102 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,320 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,234 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,008 Vol.
1%
15°C
$3,291 Vol.
5%
16°C
$2,711 Vol.
31%
17°C
$2,388 Vol.
35%
18°C
$2,665 Vol.
23%
19°C
$2,856 Vol.
13%
20°C or higher
$5,394 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.ARPA Lombardia's latest forecast bulletin highlights an incoming cold air mass and unstable weather pattern over northern Italy on May 14, driving trader consensus toward mid-teens Celsius highs in Milan, with 16°C and 17°C nearly tied at 32.5% and 30.5% implied probabilities. Prevalent cloud cover, scattered showers, and possible isolated thunderstorms from northern sectors will suppress peak heating, as confirmed by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles showing maxima clustering 15–18°C amid light easterly winds. Differentiating factors include the precise timing of diurnal maximum before any convective onset and Milan's urban heat island effect, which could nudge outcomes higher; final high-resolution updates expected overnight will refine this close contest before resolution via official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$25,946End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.ARPA Lombardia's latest forecast bulletin highlights an incoming cold air mass and unstable weather pattern over northern Italy on May 14, driving trader consensus toward mid-teens Celsius highs in Milan, with 16°C and 17°C nearly tied at 32.5% and 30.5% implied probabilities. Prevalent cloud cover, scattered showers, and possible isolated thunderstorms from northern sectors will suppress peak heating, as confirmed by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles showing maxima clustering 15–18°C amid light easterly winds. Differentiating factors include the precise timing of diurnal maximum before any convective onset and Milan's urban heat island effect, which could nudge outcomes higher; final high-resolution updates expected overnight will refine this close contest before resolution via official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25,946End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...ARPA Lombardia's latest forecast bulletin highlights an incoming cold air mass and unstable weather pattern over northern Italy on May 14, driving trader consensus toward mid-teens Celsius highs in Milan, with 16°C and 17°C nearly tied at 32.5% and 30.5% implied probabilities. Prevalent cloud cover, scattered showers, and possible isolated thunderstorms from northern sectors will suppress peak heating, as confirmed by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles showing maxima clustering 15–18°C amid light easterly winds. Differentiating factors include the precise timing of diurnal maximum before any convective onset and Milan's urban heat island effect, which could nudge outcomes higher; final high-resolution updates expected overnight will refine this close contest before resolution via official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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