The National Weather Service forecast for Dallas-Fort Worth projects a high near 91°F on May 14 under mostly sunny skies with light south winds, anchoring trader consensus at 99.6% implied probability for 80°F or higher. This positioning reflects a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas promoting subsidence, dry air, and above-normal temperatures consistent with NOAA's spring outlook for persistently warm conditions through mid-May. Model ensembles from the latest runs show tight agreement, with historical May 14 normals around 84°F underscoring the heat bias. Realistic challenges include an accelerated shortwave trough from the weekend system bringing unexpected cloud cover or isolated showers, or a shift to stronger onshore flow cooling the boundary layer, though current guidance deems these low-risk as the ridge holds through resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on May 14?
Highest temperature in Dallas on May 14?
80°F or higher 99.7%
76-77°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
61°F or below <1%
$56,517 Vol.
$56,517 Vol.
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80°F or higher
100%
80°F or higher 99.7%
76-77°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
61°F or below <1%
$56,517 Vol.
$56,517 Vol.
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80°F or higher
100%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...The National Weather Service forecast for Dallas-Fort Worth projects a high near 91°F on May 14 under mostly sunny skies with light south winds, anchoring trader consensus at 99.6% implied probability for 80°F or higher. This positioning reflects a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas promoting subsidence, dry air, and above-normal temperatures consistent with NOAA's spring outlook for persistently warm conditions through mid-May. Model ensembles from the latest runs show tight agreement, with historical May 14 normals around 84°F underscoring the heat bias. Realistic challenges include an accelerated shortwave trough from the weekend system bringing unexpected cloud cover or isolated showers, or a shift to stronger onshore flow cooling the boundary layer, though current guidance deems these low-risk as the ridge holds through resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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