Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 12°C (39.5%) as Paris's highest temperature on May 14, reflecting the latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF model consensus projecting a daytime maximum of 12°C amid overcast conditions and scattered showers. A persistent upper-level trough over western Europe drives cool Atlantic air advection via westerly winds at 15-40 km/h, capping 2m temperatures 6°C below May norms (typically 18-19°C) through extensive cloud cover that suppresses diurnal heating. Recent May 13 updates from ARPEGE and ECMWF runs shifted odds toward 11-13°C by confirming increased precipitation risk (55-70%) and minimal sunshine. Watch overnight 00Z model refreshes and initial observations from Paris-Montsouris station for potential refinements before evening peak heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on May 14?
Highest temperature in Paris on May 14?
12°C 41%
13°C 30%
11°C 24.1%
14°C 5%
$31,433 Vol.
$31,433 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
24%
12°C
41%
13°C
30%
14°C
5%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 41%
13°C 30%
11°C 24.1%
14°C 5%
$31,433 Vol.
$31,433 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
24%
12°C
41%
13°C
30%
14°C
5%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 12°C (39.5%) as Paris's highest temperature on May 14, reflecting the latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF model consensus projecting a daytime maximum of 12°C amid overcast conditions and scattered showers. A persistent upper-level trough over western Europe drives cool Atlantic air advection via westerly winds at 15-40 km/h, capping 2m temperatures 6°C below May norms (typically 18-19°C) through extensive cloud cover that suppresses diurnal heating. Recent May 13 updates from ARPEGE and ECMWF runs shifted odds toward 11-13°C by confirming increased precipitation risk (55-70%) and minimal sunshine. Watch overnight 00Z model refreshes and initial observations from Paris-Montsouris station for potential refinements before evening peak heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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