Recent forecasts from Environment Canada and numerical models indicate a Monday minimum near 13°C in Toronto under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with northwest flow and light winds overnight. This positions the 12°C outcome as the market leader because radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover can readily produce a dip to that level, while any increase in humidity or lingering cloudiness supports values closer to 14–15°C. The 16°C+ probability reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and the potential for a milder nocturnal inversion. Historical September 14 lows average 14.2°C, providing context for the tight clustering of probabilities around the forecast minimum. No major model updates are expected before the daily low is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 14?
16°C or higher 77%
6°C or below 74%
12°C 46%
14°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
6°C or below
74%
7°C
16%
8°C
36%
9°C
35%
10°C
36%
11°C
36%
12°C
46%
13°C
32%
14°C
39%
15°C
39%
16°C or higher
77%
16°C or higher 77%
6°C or below 74%
12°C 46%
14°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
74%
7°C
$0 Vol.
16%
8°C
$0 Vol.
36%
9°C
$0 Vol.
35%
10°C
$0 Vol.
36%
11°C
$0 Vol.
36%
12°C
$12 Vol.
46%
13°C
$0 Vol.
32%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C or higher
$34 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Environment Canada and numerical models indicate a Monday minimum near 13°C in Toronto under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with northwest flow and light winds overnight. This positions the 12°C outcome as the market leader because radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover can readily produce a dip to that level, while any increase in humidity or lingering cloudiness supports values closer to 14–15°C. The 16°C+ probability reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and the potential for a milder nocturnal inversion. Historical September 14 lows average 14.2°C, providing context for the tight clustering of probabilities around the forecast minimum. No major model updates are expected before the daily low is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$46End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Environment Canada and numerical models indicate a Monday minimum near 13°C in Toronto under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with northwest flow and light winds overnight. This positions the 12°C outcome as the market leader because radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover can readily produce a dip to that level, while any increase in humidity or lingering cloudiness supports values closer to 14–15°C. The 16°C+ probability reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and the potential for a milder nocturnal inversion. Historical September 14 lows average 14.2°C, providing context for the tight clustering of probabilities around the forecast minimum. No major model updates are expected before the daily low is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$46End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Environment Canada and numerical models indicate a Monday minimum near 13°C in Toronto under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with northwest flow and light winds overnight. This positions the 12°C outcome as the market leader because radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover can readily produce a dip to that level, while any increase in humidity or lingering cloudiness supports values closer to 14–15°C. The 16°C+ probability reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and the potential for a milder nocturnal inversion. Historical September 14 lows average 14.2°C, providing context for the tight clustering of probabilities around the forecast minimum. No major model updates are expected before the daily low is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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