**Latest ensemble forecasts from models such as those underlying Yr.no and Worldmeteo point to an overnight minimum near 12–13 °C for Mexico City on September 14, driven by widespread cloud cover and a 75 % chance of rain that limits nocturnal radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation.** Persistent moisture and light easterly winds are expected to moderate temperature drops compared with clearer nights, while any breaks in cloud could allow brief dips toward 11 °C. Historical September climatology shows typical lows of 10–12 °C, but the current pattern features slightly elevated dew points and reduced diurnal range. With the market showing tightly clustered probabilities across 11–14 °C outcomes, traders are pricing residual uncertainty in the final model runs and the precise timing of any clearing before dawn. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 14?
17°C or higher 47%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
11°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
7°C or below
2%
8°C
2%
9°C
2%
10°C
13%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
40%
14°C
30%
15°C
39%
16°C
39%
17°C or higher
47%
17°C or higher 47%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
11°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
8°C
$0 Vol.
2%
9°C
$0 Vol.
2%
10°C
$0 Vol.
13%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$3 Vol.
30%
15°C
$3 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from models such as those underlying Yr.no and Worldmeteo point to an overnight minimum near 12–13 °C for Mexico City on September 14, driven by widespread cloud cover and a 75 % chance of rain that limits nocturnal radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation.**
Persistent moisture and light easterly winds are expected to moderate temperature drops compared with clearer nights, while any breaks in cloud could allow brief dips toward 11 °C. Historical September climatology shows typical lows of 10–12 °C, but the current pattern features slightly elevated dew points and reduced diurnal range. With the market showing tightly clustered probabilities across 11–14 °C outcomes, traders are pricing residual uncertainty in the final model runs and the precise timing of any clearing before dawn. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 8:30 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 8:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from models such as those underlying Yr.no and Worldmeteo point to an overnight minimum near 12–13 °C for Mexico City on September 14, driven by widespread cloud cover and a 75 % chance of rain that limits nocturnal radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation.**
Persistent moisture and light easterly winds are expected to moderate temperature drops compared with clearer nights, while any breaks in cloud could allow brief dips toward 11 °C. Historical September climatology shows typical lows of 10–12 °C, but the current pattern features slightly elevated dew points and reduced diurnal range. With the market showing tightly clustered probabilities across 11–14 °C outcomes, traders are pricing residual uncertainty in the final model runs and the precise timing of any clearing before dawn. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 8:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest ensemble forecasts from models such as those underlying Yr.no and Worldmeteo point to an overnight minimum near 12–13 °C for Mexico City on September 14, driven by widespread cloud cover and a 75 % chance of rain that limits nocturnal radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation.** Persistent moisture and light easterly winds are expected to moderate temperature drops compared with clearer nights, while any breaks in cloud could allow brief dips toward 11 °C. Historical September climatology shows typical lows of 10–12 °C, but the current pattern features slightly elevated dew points and reduced diurnal range. With the market showing tightly clustered probabilities across 11–14 °C outcomes, traders are pricing residual uncertainty in the final model runs and the precise timing of any clearing before dawn. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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