Trader consensus has converged on a 70–71 °F high for San Francisco on September 12 because official observations and forecast guidance aligned with the long-term climatological average of 70.7 °F for that calendar date. National Weather Service data and model runs showed persistent onshore flow, marine-layer influence, and modest daytime heating under clear skies, producing afternoon maxima in the low 70s without the anomalous warming seen earlier in the month. This outcome sits well within the typical range for mid-September, when coastal upwelling and prevailing westerlies moderate temperatures. Only a late-developing offshore flow or unexpected downslope warming could have pushed readings outside this narrow band, but no such shift materialized in the final model updates or surface observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 12?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 12?
70-71°F 100.0%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$30,582 Vol.
$30,582 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
100%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 100.0%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$30,582 Vol.
$30,582 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
59°F or below
$353 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$227 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$1,173 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$3,635 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$2,746 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$4,612 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$4,267 Vol.
100%
72-73°F
$2,670 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$2,058 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$5,575 Vol.
<1%
78°F or higher
$3,267 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has converged on a 70–71 °F high for San Francisco on September 12 because official observations and forecast guidance aligned with the long-term climatological average of 70.7 °F for that calendar date. National Weather Service data and model runs showed persistent onshore flow, marine-layer influence, and modest daytime heating under clear skies, producing afternoon maxima in the low 70s without the anomalous warming seen earlier in the month. This outcome sits well within the typical range for mid-September, when coastal upwelling and prevailing westerlies moderate temperatures. Only a late-developing offshore flow or unexpected downslope warming could have pushed readings outside this narrow band, but no such shift materialized in the final model updates or surface observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$30,582End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has converged on a 70–71 °F high for San Francisco on September 12 because official observations and forecast guidance aligned with the long-term climatological average of 70.7 °F for that calendar date. National Weather Service data and model runs showed persistent onshore flow, marine-layer influence, and modest daytime heating under clear skies, producing afternoon maxima in the low 70s without the anomalous warming seen earlier in the month. This outcome sits well within the typical range for mid-September, when coastal upwelling and prevailing westerlies moderate temperatures. Only a late-developing offshore flow or unexpected downslope warming could have pushed readings outside this narrow band, but no such shift materialized in the final model updates or surface observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,582End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus has converged on a 70–71 °F high for San Francisco on September 12 because official observations and forecast guidance aligned with the long-term climatological average of 70.7 °F for that calendar date. National Weather Service data and model runs showed persistent onshore flow, marine-layer influence, and modest daytime heating under clear skies, producing afternoon maxima in the low 70s without the anomalous warming seen earlier in the month. This outcome sits well within the typical range for mid-September, when coastal upwelling and prevailing westerlies moderate temperatures. Only a late-developing offshore flow or unexpected downslope warming could have pushed readings outside this narrow band, but no such shift materialized in the final model updates or surface observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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