Forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and private providers converge on a September 14 high near 92–93°F for Houston, driven by persistent southeast winds, high humidity, and a 40% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. Recent observations show similar mid-90s peaks on September 12–13 amid comparable steering patterns and moisture, with heat indices exceeding 108°F. Minor model spread around cloud cover and storm timing supports the market's emphasis on the 92–93°F bin (51.5% implied probability), while drier scenarios could push readings into the mid-90s. Updated National Weather Service guidance and radar trends ahead of the daily maximum will refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on September 14?
Highest temperature in Houston on September 14?
92-93°F 52%
94-95°F 26%
90-91°F 18%
98-99°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
81°F or below
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
52%
94-95°F
26%
96-97°F
3%
98-99°F
4%
100°F or higher
3%
92-93°F 52%
94-95°F 26%
90-91°F 18%
98-99°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
81°F or below
$243 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$273 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$132 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$84 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$47 Vol.
3%
90-91°F
$230 Vol.
18%
92-93°F
$393 Vol.
52%
94-95°F
$222 Vol.
26%
96-97°F
$47 Vol.
3%
98-99°F
$40 Vol.
4%
100°F or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and private providers converge on a September 14 high near 92–93°F for Houston, driven by persistent southeast winds, high humidity, and a 40% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. Recent observations show similar mid-90s peaks on September 12–13 amid comparable steering patterns and moisture, with heat indices exceeding 108°F. Minor model spread around cloud cover and storm timing supports the market's emphasis on the 92–93°F bin (51.5% implied probability), while drier scenarios could push readings into the mid-90s. Updated National Weather Service guidance and radar trends ahead of the daily maximum will refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,711End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and private providers converge on a September 14 high near 92–93°F for Houston, driven by persistent southeast winds, high humidity, and a 40% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. Recent observations show similar mid-90s peaks on September 12–13 amid comparable steering patterns and moisture, with heat indices exceeding 108°F. Minor model spread around cloud cover and storm timing supports the market's emphasis on the 92–93°F bin (51.5% implied probability), while drier scenarios could push readings into the mid-90s. Updated National Weather Service guidance and radar trends ahead of the daily maximum will refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,711End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and private providers converge on a September 14 high near 92–93°F for Houston, driven by persistent southeast winds, high humidity, and a 40% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. Recent observations show similar mid-90s peaks on September 12–13 amid comparable steering patterns and moisture, with heat indices exceeding 108°F. Minor model spread around cloud cover and storm timing supports the market's emphasis on the 92–93°F bin (51.5% implied probability), while drier scenarios could push readings into the mid-90s. Updated National Weather Service guidance and radar trends ahead of the daily maximum will refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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