Recent model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF drives trader sentiment toward 29–30°C as the leading implied probabilities for Qingdao’s September 14 high, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions and light northeasterly flow that limit daytime heating along the coast. Current forecasts cluster between 26–30°C, consistent with September climatology of roughly 26°C average highs moderated by the Yellow Sea, with clear or mostly sunny skies and low humidity supporting modest warming. Minor model spread in peak temperature and timing of any cloud cover creates the tight 45.5%–31% split between 30°C and 29°C, while lower outcomes remain possible only if marine influence strengthens or forecasts trend cooler in upcoming runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 14?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 14?
30°C 46%
29°C 31%
31°C 14%
28°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
24°C or below
2%
25°C
2%
26°C
3%
27°C
6%
28°C
8%
29°C
31%
30°C
46%
31°C
14%
32°C
5%
33°C
6%
34°C or higher
2%
30°C 46%
29°C 31%
31°C 14%
28°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
24°C or below
$205 Vol.
2%
25°C
$125 Vol.
2%
26°C
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$33 Vol.
6%
28°C
$11 Vol.
8%
29°C
$0 Vol.
31%
30°C
$55 Vol.
46%
31°C
$333 Vol.
14%
32°C
$0 Vol.
5%
33°C
$31 Vol.
6%
34°C or higher
$20 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF drives trader sentiment toward 29–30°C as the leading implied probabilities for Qingdao’s September 14 high, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions and light northeasterly flow that limit daytime heating along the coast. Current forecasts cluster between 26–30°C, consistent with September climatology of roughly 26°C average highs moderated by the Yellow Sea, with clear or mostly sunny skies and low humidity supporting modest warming. Minor model spread in peak temperature and timing of any cloud cover creates the tight 45.5%–31% split between 30°C and 29°C, while lower outcomes remain possible only if marine influence strengthens or forecasts trend cooler in upcoming runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$812End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF drives trader sentiment toward 29–30°C as the leading implied probabilities for Qingdao’s September 14 high, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions and light northeasterly flow that limit daytime heating along the coast. Current forecasts cluster between 26–30°C, consistent with September climatology of roughly 26°C average highs moderated by the Yellow Sea, with clear or mostly sunny skies and low humidity supporting modest warming. Minor model spread in peak temperature and timing of any cloud cover creates the tight 45.5%–31% split between 30°C and 29°C, while lower outcomes remain possible only if marine influence strengthens or forecasts trend cooler in upcoming runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$812End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF drives trader sentiment toward 29–30°C as the leading implied probabilities for Qingdao’s September 14 high, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions and light northeasterly flow that limit daytime heating along the coast. Current forecasts cluster between 26–30°C, consistent with September climatology of roughly 26°C average highs moderated by the Yellow Sea, with clear or mostly sunny skies and low humidity supporting modest warming. Minor model spread in peak temperature and timing of any cloud cover creates the tight 45.5%–31% split between 30°C and 29°C, while lower outcomes remain possible only if marine influence strengthens or forecasts trend cooler in upcoming runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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