Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show Beijing under high pressure with mostly clear skies and light southerly winds on September 14, supporting a daily maximum near 27–28°C. Subtle differences among leading outcomes stem from variations in predicted boundary-layer mixing, the exact timing of any northerly wind shift, and minor discrepancies in surface heating under dry autumn conditions. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration aligns with this range, though ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to small changes in advection or cloud cover. Traders weigh these model consensus signals against historical September baselines around 26–29°C when assessing the narrow spread between 27°C and 28°C implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 14?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 14?
28°C 45%
27°C 29%
29°C 15%
26°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
4%
26°C
10%
27°C
29%
28°C
45%
29°C
15%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
5%
28°C 45%
27°C 29%
29°C 15%
26°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$50 Vol.
4%
26°C
$286 Vol.
10%
27°C
$122 Vol.
29%
28°C
$264 Vol.
45%
29°C
$370 Vol.
15%
30°C
$0 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show Beijing under high pressure with mostly clear skies and light southerly winds on September 14, supporting a daily maximum near 27–28°C. Subtle differences among leading outcomes stem from variations in predicted boundary-layer mixing, the exact timing of any northerly wind shift, and minor discrepancies in surface heating under dry autumn conditions. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration aligns with this range, though ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to small changes in advection or cloud cover. Traders weigh these model consensus signals against historical September baselines around 26–29°C when assessing the narrow spread between 27°C and 28°C implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,000End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show Beijing under high pressure with mostly clear skies and light southerly winds on September 14, supporting a daily maximum near 27–28°C. Subtle differences among leading outcomes stem from variations in predicted boundary-layer mixing, the exact timing of any northerly wind shift, and minor discrepancies in surface heating under dry autumn conditions. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration aligns with this range, though ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to small changes in advection or cloud cover. Traders weigh these model consensus signals against historical September baselines around 26–29°C when assessing the narrow spread between 27°C and 28°C implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,000End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show Beijing under high pressure with mostly clear skies and light southerly winds on September 14, supporting a daily maximum near 27–28°C. Subtle differences among leading outcomes stem from variations in predicted boundary-layer mixing, the exact timing of any northerly wind shift, and minor discrepancies in surface heating under dry autumn conditions. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration aligns with this range, though ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to small changes in advection or cloud cover. Traders weigh these model consensus signals against historical September baselines around 26–29°C when assessing the narrow spread between 27°C and 28°C implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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