Persistent southerly flow and high pressure across North Texas are sustaining elevated overnight minimums, with National Weather Service and private model guidance converging on lows of 79–81°F for Dallas on September 16 amid clear skies and dew points near 68–70°F. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 80–83°F while leaving room for modest shifts if boundary-layer mixing or subtle wind changes alter radiational cooling. Historical September averages near 70°F underscore the current anomaly, but with no frontal passages or significant moisture return expected before resolution, traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs most heavily. Updated NWS briefings and 00Z model cycles will provide the next key data points for refining these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on September 16?
71°F or below 64%
90°F or higher 64%
72-73°F 39%
84-85°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
71°F or below
64%
72-73°F
39%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
21%
78-79°F
22%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
30%
84-85°F
39%
86-87°F
39%
88-89°F
39%
90°F or higher
64%
71°F or below 64%
90°F or higher 64%
72-73°F 39%
84-85°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
71°F or below
$0 Vol.
64%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
39%
74-75°F
$39 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$146 Vol.
21%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
22%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$6 Vol.
30%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
39%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
39%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
39%
90°F or higher
$0 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southerly flow and high pressure across North Texas are sustaining elevated overnight minimums, with National Weather Service and private model guidance converging on lows of 79–81°F for Dallas on September 16 amid clear skies and dew points near 68–70°F. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 80–83°F while leaving room for modest shifts if boundary-layer mixing or subtle wind changes alter radiational cooling. Historical September averages near 70°F underscore the current anomaly, but with no frontal passages or significant moisture return expected before resolution, traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs most heavily. Updated NWS briefings and 00Z model cycles will provide the next key data points for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$191End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southerly flow and high pressure across North Texas are sustaining elevated overnight minimums, with National Weather Service and private model guidance converging on lows of 79–81°F for Dallas on September 16 amid clear skies and dew points near 68–70°F. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 80–83°F while leaving room for modest shifts if boundary-layer mixing or subtle wind changes alter radiational cooling. Historical September averages near 70°F underscore the current anomaly, but with no frontal passages or significant moisture return expected before resolution, traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs most heavily. Updated NWS briefings and 00Z model cycles will provide the next key data points for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$191End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southerly flow and high pressure across North Texas are sustaining elevated overnight minimums, with National Weather Service and private model guidance converging on lows of 79–81°F for Dallas on September 16 amid clear skies and dew points near 68–70°F. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 80–83°F while leaving room for modest shifts if boundary-layer mixing or subtle wind changes alter radiational cooling. Historical September averages near 70°F underscore the current anomaly, but with no frontal passages or significant moisture return expected before resolution, traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs most heavily. Updated NWS briefings and 00Z model cycles will provide the next key data points for refining these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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