Persistent heat across North Texas, with southerly winds and clear skies under a strong high-pressure ridge, is keeping overnight lows elevated ahead of September 15. Official forecasts from sources tracking DFW conditions project minimum temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s°F that night, well above the late-summer climatological average near 70°F. Model consensus shows little change in steering patterns or moisture through the short term, limiting radiational cooling. This setup underpins trader positioning around the 80–92°F range for the daily minimum, with the highest-implied-probability bucket reflecting expectations that the heat wave will prevent the temperature from dropping below the low 80s before sunrise on the 15th. Updated National Weather Service guidance and next model runs will be key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on September 15?
73°F or below 100%
92°F or higher 100%
74-75°F 40%
76-77°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
73°F or below
100%
74-75°F
40%
76-77°F
40%
78-79°F
40%
80-81°F
40%
82-83°F
40%
84-85°F
40%
86-87°F
40%
88-89°F
40%
90-91°F
40%
92°F or higher
100%
73°F or below 100%
92°F or higher 100%
74-75°F 40%
76-77°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
100%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
40%
76-77°F
$105 Vol.
40%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
40%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
40%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
40%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
40%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
40%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
40%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
40%
92°F or higher
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heat across North Texas, with southerly winds and clear skies under a strong high-pressure ridge, is keeping overnight lows elevated ahead of September 15. Official forecasts from sources tracking DFW conditions project minimum temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s°F that night, well above the late-summer climatological average near 70°F. Model consensus shows little change in steering patterns or moisture through the short term, limiting radiational cooling. This setup underpins trader positioning around the 80–92°F range for the daily minimum, with the highest-implied-probability bucket reflecting expectations that the heat wave will prevent the temperature from dropping below the low 80s before sunrise on the 15th. Updated National Weather Service guidance and next model runs will be key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volume
$105End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heat across North Texas, with southerly winds and clear skies under a strong high-pressure ridge, is keeping overnight lows elevated ahead of September 15. Official forecasts from sources tracking DFW conditions project minimum temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s°F that night, well above the late-summer climatological average near 70°F. Model consensus shows little change in steering patterns or moisture through the short term, limiting radiational cooling. This setup underpins trader positioning around the 80–92°F range for the daily minimum, with the highest-implied-probability bucket reflecting expectations that the heat wave will prevent the temperature from dropping below the low 80s before sunrise on the 15th. Updated National Weather Service guidance and next model runs will be key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$105End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heat across North Texas, with southerly winds and clear skies under a strong high-pressure ridge, is keeping overnight lows elevated ahead of September 15. Official forecasts from sources tracking DFW conditions project minimum temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s°F that night, well above the late-summer climatological average near 70°F. Model consensus shows little change in steering patterns or moisture through the short term, limiting radiational cooling. This setup underpins trader positioning around the 80–92°F range for the daily minimum, with the highest-implied-probability bucket reflecting expectations that the heat wave will prevent the temperature from dropping below the low 80s before sunrise on the 15th. Updated National Weather Service guidance and next model runs will be key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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