Current forecast models from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles converge on a nighttime low near 18°C for Istanbul on September 15, driven by northeasterly flow, partial cloud cover, and moderate radiative cooling under high pressure. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet the near-even split between 14°C-or-below and 24°C-or-higher reflects residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact dew-point depression. Recent cooling of 5–6°C from early-month warmth has already occurred, but no new synoptic features—such as stronger advection or clear-sky extremes—are expected to push extremes before resolution. Traders appear to be weighting both tail risks from forecast revisions and the narrow historical range for mid-September minima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 15?
24°C or higher 97%
14°C or below 49%
22°C 40%
23°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
14°C or below
49%
15°C
21%
16°C
21%
17°C
21%
18°C
21%
19°C
21%
20°C
21%
21°C
1%
22°C
40%
23°C
40%
24°C or higher
97%
24°C or higher 97%
14°C or below 49%
22°C 40%
23°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
49%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
21%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$0 Vol.
21%
21°C
$10 Vol.
1%
22°C
$10 Vol.
40%
23°C
$10 Vol.
40%
24°C or higher
$10 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles converge on a nighttime low near 18°C for Istanbul on September 15, driven by northeasterly flow, partial cloud cover, and moderate radiative cooling under high pressure. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet the near-even split between 14°C-or-below and 24°C-or-higher reflects residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact dew-point depression. Recent cooling of 5–6°C from early-month warmth has already occurred, but no new synoptic features—such as stronger advection or clear-sky extremes—are expected to push extremes before resolution. Traders appear to be weighting both tail risks from forecast revisions and the narrow historical range for mid-September minima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles converge on a nighttime low near 18°C for Istanbul on September 15, driven by northeasterly flow, partial cloud cover, and moderate radiative cooling under high pressure. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet the near-even split between 14°C-or-below and 24°C-or-higher reflects residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact dew-point depression. Recent cooling of 5–6°C from early-month warmth has already occurred, but no new synoptic features—such as stronger advection or clear-sky extremes—are expected to push extremes before resolution. Traders appear to be weighting both tail risks from forecast revisions and the narrow historical range for mid-September minima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles converge on a nighttime low near 18°C for Istanbul on September 15, driven by northeasterly flow, partial cloud cover, and moderate radiative cooling under high pressure. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet the near-even split between 14°C-or-below and 24°C-or-higher reflects residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact dew-point depression. Recent cooling of 5–6°C from early-month warmth has already occurred, but no new synoptic features—such as stronger advection or clear-sky extremes—are expected to push extremes before resolution. Traders appear to be weighting both tail risks from forecast revisions and the narrow historical range for mid-September minima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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