Recent forecast guidance from European and global models shows southerly flow advecting milder air toward the Netherlands, supporting overnight lows for Amsterdam on September 15 likely in the 15–17°C range under partly cloudy skies with limited radiative cooling. This setup explains the near-even market split between the 21°C-or-higher and 11°C-or-below outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or timing of any weak frontal passage could push the minimum across those thresholds. Historical September averages near 11°C provide context, yet current conditions favor above-normal readings unless a clearer, calmer night develops. Traders are watching the next ECMWF and GFS runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 15?
11°C or below 89%
21°C or higher 89%
12°C 40%
20°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
11°C or below
89%
12°C
40%
13°C
21%
14°C
20%
15°C
22%
16°C
22%
17°C
22%
18°C
21%
19°C
21%
20°C
40%
21°C or higher
89%
11°C or below 89%
21°C or higher 89%
12°C 40%
20°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
11°C or below
$10 Vol.
89%
12°C
$10 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
22%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$10 Vol.
40%
21°C or higher
$10 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from European and global models shows southerly flow advecting milder air toward the Netherlands, supporting overnight lows for Amsterdam on September 15 likely in the 15–17°C range under partly cloudy skies with limited radiative cooling. This setup explains the near-even market split between the 21°C-or-higher and 11°C-or-below outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or timing of any weak frontal passage could push the minimum across those thresholds. Historical September averages near 11°C provide context, yet current conditions favor above-normal readings unless a clearer, calmer night develops. Traders are watching the next ECMWF and GFS runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from European and global models shows southerly flow advecting milder air toward the Netherlands, supporting overnight lows for Amsterdam on September 15 likely in the 15–17°C range under partly cloudy skies with limited radiative cooling. This setup explains the near-even market split between the 21°C-or-higher and 11°C-or-below outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or timing of any weak frontal passage could push the minimum across those thresholds. Historical September averages near 11°C provide context, yet current conditions favor above-normal readings unless a clearer, calmer night develops. Traders are watching the next ECMWF and GFS runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from European and global models shows southerly flow advecting milder air toward the Netherlands, supporting overnight lows for Amsterdam on September 15 likely in the 15–17°C range under partly cloudy skies with limited radiative cooling. This setup explains the near-even market split between the 21°C-or-higher and 11°C-or-below outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or timing of any weak frontal passage could push the minimum across those thresholds. Historical September averages near 11°C provide context, yet current conditions favor above-normal readings unless a clearer, calmer night develops. Traders are watching the next ECMWF and GFS runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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