Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicates a mild autumn day for Amsterdam on September 15, with daytime highs most likely peaking at 21–24°C under southwesterly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited precipitation risk. This positions 23°C as the leading market outcome at 39% implied probability, followed by 24°C (26.5%) and 22°C (18.5%), reflecting traders' aggregation of forecast spreads and typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C near 48-hour lead times. The slightly above-average temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 September high of 19.3°C stem from transient warm advection, though no extreme ridging or heatwave setup appears in current guidance. Updated model runs and KNMI briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around observed maximums at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 15?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 15?
23°C 39%
24°C 32%
22°C 19%
25°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
5%
21°C
3%
22°C
19%
23°C
39%
24°C
32%
25°C
7%
26°C
4%
27°C
4%
28°C
2%
29°C or higher
2%
23°C 39%
24°C 32%
22°C 19%
25°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
19°C or below
$39 Vol.
1%
20°C
$224 Vol.
5%
21°C
$43 Vol.
3%
22°C
$32 Vol.
19%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$134 Vol.
32%
25°C
$30 Vol.
7%
26°C
$20 Vol.
4%
27°C
$10 Vol.
4%
28°C
$10 Vol.
2%
29°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicates a mild autumn day for Amsterdam on September 15, with daytime highs most likely peaking at 21–24°C under southwesterly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited precipitation risk. This positions 23°C as the leading market outcome at 39% implied probability, followed by 24°C (26.5%) and 22°C (18.5%), reflecting traders' aggregation of forecast spreads and typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C near 48-hour lead times. The slightly above-average temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 September high of 19.3°C stem from transient warm advection, though no extreme ridging or heatwave setup appears in current guidance. Updated model runs and KNMI briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around observed maximums at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
Volume
$552End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicates a mild autumn day for Amsterdam on September 15, with daytime highs most likely peaking at 21–24°C under southwesterly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited precipitation risk. This positions 23°C as the leading market outcome at 39% implied probability, followed by 24°C (26.5%) and 22°C (18.5%), reflecting traders' aggregation of forecast spreads and typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C near 48-hour lead times. The slightly above-average temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 September high of 19.3°C stem from transient warm advection, though no extreme ridging or heatwave setup appears in current guidance. Updated model runs and KNMI briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around observed maximums at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$552End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicates a mild autumn day for Amsterdam on September 15, with daytime highs most likely peaking at 21–24°C under southwesterly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited precipitation risk. This positions 23°C as the leading market outcome at 39% implied probability, followed by 24°C (26.5%) and 22°C (18.5%), reflecting traders' aggregation of forecast spreads and typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C near 48-hour lead times. The slightly above-average temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 September high of 19.3°C stem from transient warm advection, though no extreme ridging or heatwave setup appears in current guidance. Updated model runs and KNMI briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around observed maximums at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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