**Forecast consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and regional models points to a peak temperature of 21–23°C in Amsterdam on September 14, with light southerly to southwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies limiting strong daytime heating.** Recent observations show the region under a weakening high-pressure ridge, yielding daytime maxima near 20–22°C amid light rain chances (20–35%) that suppress further warming. This aligns with climatological September averages of 17–20°C while reflecting a modest positive anomaly from Atlantic air masses. Trader positioning at 22°C (40%) and 23°C (29%) reflects tight model agreement on maximum values, with lower probabilities for 24°C+ or sub-21°C outcomes tied to potential steering shifts or timing of any showers. Updated runs from KNMI and ECMWF ensembles will refine the exact peak as the 48-hour window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 14?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 14?
22°C 40%
23°C 29%
21°C 25%
20°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C
3%
20°C
9%
21°C
17%
22°C
40%
23°C
29%
24°C
9%
25°C
9%
26°C or higher
7%
22°C 40%
23°C 29%
21°C 25%
20°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C
$0 Vol.
3%
20°C
$4 Vol.
9%
21°C
$7 Vol.
17%
22°C
$13 Vol.
40%
23°C
$9 Vol.
29%
24°C
$0 Vol.
9%
25°C
$0 Vol.
9%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and regional models points to a peak temperature of 21–23°C in Amsterdam on September 14, with light southerly to southwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies limiting strong daytime heating.** Recent observations show the region under a weakening high-pressure ridge, yielding daytime maxima near 20–22°C amid light rain chances (20–35%) that suppress further warming. This aligns with climatological September averages of 17–20°C while reflecting a modest positive anomaly from Atlantic air masses. Trader positioning at 22°C (40%) and 23°C (29%) reflects tight model agreement on maximum values, with lower probabilities for 24°C+ or sub-21°C outcomes tied to potential steering shifts or timing of any showers. Updated runs from KNMI and ECMWF ensembles will refine the exact peak as the 48-hour window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$34End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and regional models points to a peak temperature of 21–23°C in Amsterdam on September 14, with light southerly to southwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies limiting strong daytime heating.** Recent observations show the region under a weakening high-pressure ridge, yielding daytime maxima near 20–22°C amid light rain chances (20–35%) that suppress further warming. This aligns with climatological September averages of 17–20°C while reflecting a modest positive anomaly from Atlantic air masses. Trader positioning at 22°C (40%) and 23°C (29%) reflects tight model agreement on maximum values, with lower probabilities for 24°C+ or sub-21°C outcomes tied to potential steering shifts or timing of any showers. Updated runs from KNMI and ECMWF ensembles will refine the exact peak as the 48-hour window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and regional models points to a peak temperature of 21–23°C in Amsterdam on September 14, with light southerly to southwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies limiting strong daytime heating.** Recent observations show the region under a weakening high-pressure ridge, yielding daytime maxima near 20–22°C amid light rain chances (20–35%) that suppress further warming. This aligns with climatological September averages of 17–20°C while reflecting a modest positive anomaly from Atlantic air masses. Trader positioning at 22°C (40%) and 23°C (29%) reflects tight model agreement on maximum values, with lower probabilities for 24°C+ or sub-21°C outcomes tied to potential steering shifts or timing of any showers. Updated runs from KNMI and ECMWF ensembles will refine the exact peak as the 48-hour window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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