Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources project a sunny day in Qingdao on September 15 with southerly winds of 3-4 levels and a daily maximum near 26-28°C, consistent with typical early autumn patterns under stable high pressure. Trader sentiment, however, concentrates implied probability on 30°C and 31°C outcomes, likely reflecting expectations of enhanced daytime heating from clear skies, low humidity, and potential urban heat island effects at official stations that could exceed model guidance by 2-3°C. With resolution tied to the highest hourly or daily peak reported, any late-day warming or measurement variance could shift results, though climatological baselines for mid-September rarely exceed 29°C without unusual southerly flow. Updated model runs and official Chinese Meteorological Administration briefings tomorrow morning represent the key upcoming data points for position adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 15?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 15?
30°C 49%
31°C 38%
32°C or higher 8%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
6%
30°C
49%
31°C
38%
32°C or higher
8%
30°C 49%
31°C 38%
32°C or higher 8%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
22°C or below
$98 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$88 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$198 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$188 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$155 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$373 Vol.
1%
28°C
$93 Vol.
2%
29°C
$523 Vol.
6%
30°C
$1,945 Vol.
49%
31°C
$936 Vol.
38%
32°C or higher
$1,884 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources project a sunny day in Qingdao on September 15 with southerly winds of 3-4 levels and a daily maximum near 26-28°C, consistent with typical early autumn patterns under stable high pressure. Trader sentiment, however, concentrates implied probability on 30°C and 31°C outcomes, likely reflecting expectations of enhanced daytime heating from clear skies, low humidity, and potential urban heat island effects at official stations that could exceed model guidance by 2-3°C. With resolution tied to the highest hourly or daily peak reported, any late-day warming or measurement variance could shift results, though climatological baselines for mid-September rarely exceed 29°C without unusual southerly flow. Updated model runs and official Chinese Meteorological Administration briefings tomorrow morning represent the key upcoming data points for position adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ET
Volume
$6,466End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources project a sunny day in Qingdao on September 15 with southerly winds of 3-4 levels and a daily maximum near 26-28°C, consistent with typical early autumn patterns under stable high pressure. Trader sentiment, however, concentrates implied probability on 30°C and 31°C outcomes, likely reflecting expectations of enhanced daytime heating from clear skies, low humidity, and potential urban heat island effects at official stations that could exceed model guidance by 2-3°C. With resolution tied to the highest hourly or daily peak reported, any late-day warming or measurement variance could shift results, though climatological baselines for mid-September rarely exceed 29°C without unusual southerly flow. Updated model runs and official Chinese Meteorological Administration briefings tomorrow morning represent the key upcoming data points for position adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,466End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources project a sunny day in Qingdao on September 15 with southerly winds of 3-4 levels and a daily maximum near 26-28°C, consistent with typical early autumn patterns under stable high pressure. Trader sentiment, however, concentrates implied probability on 30°C and 31°C outcomes, likely reflecting expectations of enhanced daytime heating from clear skies, low humidity, and potential urban heat island effects at official stations that could exceed model guidance by 2-3°C. With resolution tied to the highest hourly or daily peak reported, any late-day warming or measurement variance could shift results, though climatological baselines for mid-September rarely exceed 29°C without unusual southerly flow. Updated model runs and official Chinese Meteorological Administration briefings tomorrow morning represent the key upcoming data points for position adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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