Official meteorological data from Miami-area stations confirmed a daily minimum temperature in the 78-79°F range on September 16, driving the market's 99% implied probability for that bin. Late-summer conditions featuring elevated humidity, light winds, and the absence of significant cold fronts or tropical moisture typically limit overnight radiative cooling in South Florida, producing lows consistent with long-term September climatology near 76-80°F. National Weather Service observations aligned closely with pre-event model consensus, leaving little room for deviation. Only an unusual measurement anomaly, station-specific microclimate effect, or revised official report could have shifted the outcome, though none occurred.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Miami on September 16?
78-79°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$7,639 Vol.
$7,639 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
71°F or below
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
Yes
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90°F or higher
No
78-79°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$7,639 Vol.
$7,639 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
71°F or below
$61 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$73 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$272 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$636 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$1,342 Vol.
Yes
80-81°F
$1,979 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$275 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$208 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$1,023 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$847 Vol.
No
90°F or higher
$923 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official meteorological data from Miami-area stations confirmed a daily minimum temperature in the 78-79°F range on September 16, driving the market's 99% implied probability for that bin. Late-summer conditions featuring elevated humidity, light winds, and the absence of significant cold fronts or tropical moisture typically limit overnight radiative cooling in South Florida, producing lows consistent with long-term September climatology near 76-80°F. National Weather Service observations aligned closely with pre-event model consensus, leaving little room for deviation. Only an unusual measurement anomaly, station-specific microclimate effect, or revised official report could have shifted the outcome, though none occurred.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$7,639End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official meteorological data from Miami-area stations confirmed a daily minimum temperature in the 78-79°F range on September 16, driving the market's 99% implied probability for that bin. Late-summer conditions featuring elevated humidity, light winds, and the absence of significant cold fronts or tropical moisture typically limit overnight radiative cooling in South Florida, producing lows consistent with long-term September climatology near 76-80°F. National Weather Service observations aligned closely with pre-event model consensus, leaving little room for deviation. Only an unusual measurement anomaly, station-specific microclimate effect, or revised official report could have shifted the outcome, though none occurred.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,639End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official meteorological data from Miami-area stations confirmed a daily minimum temperature in the 78-79°F range on September 16, driving the market's 99% implied probability for that bin. Late-summer conditions featuring elevated humidity, light winds, and the absence of significant cold fronts or tropical moisture typically limit overnight radiative cooling in South Florida, producing lows consistent with long-term September climatology near 76-80°F. National Weather Service observations aligned closely with pre-event model consensus, leaving little room for deviation. Only an unusual measurement anomaly, station-specific microclimate effect, or revised official report could have shifted the outcome, though none occurred.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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