Subtropical high pressure over southern China has produced mostly clear skies and strong solar heating across Guangzhou on September 19, driving surface temperatures toward the upper 30s Celsius according to official forecasts. Multiple model runs and local meteorological guidance converge on a daily maximum near 36°C, consistent with recent September observations and climatological norms for the region during this time of year. The 100% market-implied probability for 36°C reflects this strong consensus among forecasters and real-time data. A realistic challenge would require rapid development of cloud cover or convective rain that limits insolation, or an official station measurement falling just outside the implied threshold due to microscale variations or timing of the peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on September 19?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 19?
36°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$52,077 Vol.
$52,077 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$52,077 Vol.
$52,077 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
29°C or below
$209 Vol.
No
30°C
$250 Vol.
No
31°C
$308 Vol.
No
32°C
$365 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,600 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,693 Vol.
No
35°C
$6,216 Vol.
No
36°C
$10,133 Vol.
Yes
37°C
$12,018 Vol.
No
38°C
$12,796 Vol.
No
39°C or higher
$5,490 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Subtropical high pressure over southern China has produced mostly clear skies and strong solar heating across Guangzhou on September 19, driving surface temperatures toward the upper 30s Celsius according to official forecasts. Multiple model runs and local meteorological guidance converge on a daily maximum near 36°C, consistent with recent September observations and climatological norms for the region during this time of year. The 100% market-implied probability for 36°C reflects this strong consensus among forecasters and real-time data. A realistic challenge would require rapid development of cloud cover or convective rain that limits insolation, or an official station measurement falling just outside the implied threshold due to microscale variations or timing of the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$52,077End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Subtropical high pressure over southern China has produced mostly clear skies and strong solar heating across Guangzhou on September 19, driving surface temperatures toward the upper 30s Celsius according to official forecasts. Multiple model runs and local meteorological guidance converge on a daily maximum near 36°C, consistent with recent September observations and climatological norms for the region during this time of year. The 100% market-implied probability for 36°C reflects this strong consensus among forecasters and real-time data. A realistic challenge would require rapid development of cloud cover or convective rain that limits insolation, or an official station measurement falling just outside the implied threshold due to microscale variations or timing of the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$52,077End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Subtropical high pressure over southern China has produced mostly clear skies and strong solar heating across Guangzhou on September 19, driving surface temperatures toward the upper 30s Celsius according to official forecasts. Multiple model runs and local meteorological guidance converge on a daily maximum near 36°C, consistent with recent September observations and climatological norms for the region during this time of year. The 100% market-implied probability for 36°C reflects this strong consensus among forecasters and real-time data. A realistic challenge would require rapid development of cloud cover or convective rain that limits insolation, or an official station measurement falling just outside the implied threshold due to microscale variations or timing of the peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions