**Recent model runs and observational trends show Guangzhou under the influence of moist southwesterly flow ahead of a frontal or monsoon trough, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on September 21 that limit afternoon insolation and cap maximum temperatures.** Forecasts from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and local guidance cluster around 32–34 °C, with higher values possible only if rain holds off until late afternoon or if breaks in cloud cover allow stronger surface heating. Historical September highs average near 31.5 °C, but recent days have reached 35–36 °C under clearer conditions, contributing to trader emphasis on the upper end of the distribution. The close spread between 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C reflects uncertainty in precipitation timing, cloud optical depth, and boundary-layer moisture, all of which directly modulate peak surface temperature on a day with light winds and high humidity. Updated model runs and radar trends through the weekend will be the key near-term drivers of any shift in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on September 21?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 21?
36°C 31%
35°C 26%
34°C 20%
37°C or higher 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C
10%
34°C
20%
35°C
26%
36°C
31%
37°C or higher
18%
36°C 31%
35°C 26%
34°C 20%
37°C or higher 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
27°C or below
$267 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$133 Vol.
1%
31°C
$8 Vol.
2%
32°C
$45 Vol.
4%
33°C
$8 Vol.
10%
34°C
$445 Vol.
20%
35°C
$88 Vol.
26%
36°C
$330 Vol.
31%
37°C or higher
$316 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model runs and observational trends show Guangzhou under the influence of moist southwesterly flow ahead of a frontal or monsoon trough, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on September 21 that limit afternoon insolation and cap maximum temperatures.** Forecasts from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and local guidance cluster around 32–34 °C, with higher values possible only if rain holds off until late afternoon or if breaks in cloud cover allow stronger surface heating. Historical September highs average near 31.5 °C, but recent days have reached 35–36 °C under clearer conditions, contributing to trader emphasis on the upper end of the distribution. The close spread between 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C reflects uncertainty in precipitation timing, cloud optical depth, and boundary-layer moisture, all of which directly modulate peak surface temperature on a day with light winds and high humidity. Updated model runs and radar trends through the weekend will be the key near-term drivers of any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,862End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model runs and observational trends show Guangzhou under the influence of moist southwesterly flow ahead of a frontal or monsoon trough, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on September 21 that limit afternoon insolation and cap maximum temperatures.** Forecasts from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and local guidance cluster around 32–34 °C, with higher values possible only if rain holds off until late afternoon or if breaks in cloud cover allow stronger surface heating. Historical September highs average near 31.5 °C, but recent days have reached 35–36 °C under clearer conditions, contributing to trader emphasis on the upper end of the distribution. The close spread between 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C reflects uncertainty in precipitation timing, cloud optical depth, and boundary-layer moisture, all of which directly modulate peak surface temperature on a day with light winds and high humidity. Updated model runs and radar trends through the weekend will be the key near-term drivers of any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,862End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model runs and observational trends show Guangzhou under the influence of moist southwesterly flow ahead of a frontal or monsoon trough, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on September 21 that limit afternoon insolation and cap maximum temperatures.** Forecasts from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and local guidance cluster around 32–34 °C, with higher values possible only if rain holds off until late afternoon or if breaks in cloud cover allow stronger surface heating. Historical September highs average near 31.5 °C, but recent days have reached 35–36 °C under clearer conditions, contributing to trader emphasis on the upper end of the distribution. The close spread between 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C reflects uncertainty in precipitation timing, cloud optical depth, and boundary-layer moisture, all of which directly modulate peak surface temperature on a day with light winds and high humidity. Updated model runs and radar trends through the weekend will be the key near-term drivers of any shift in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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