Trader consensus shows the tightest implied probabilities clustered between 31°C and 32°C for Panama City’s September 21 maximum, reflecting substantial forecast uncertainty. A tropical wave near 81°W is enhancing moisture and convective activity across the isthmus, with afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover likely to limit peak insolation and cap temperatures near seasonal norms of 29–32°C. Model guidance diverges on the timing and coverage of showers, directly influencing whether radiative heating reaches the higher end of the range. Updated National Meteorological Service runs and NHC tropical weather discussions over the next 48 hours will provide the key data shifts traders are monitoring ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on September 21?
Highest temperature in Panama City on September 21?
31°C 41%
32°C 32%
30°C 25%
29°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
12%
30°C
18%
31°C
41%
32°C
32%
33°C or higher
11%
31°C 41%
32°C 32%
30°C 25%
29°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
23°C or below
$29 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$10 Vol.
2%
27°C
$10 Vol.
2%
28°C
$20 Vol.
5%
29°C
$20 Vol.
12%
30°C
$4 Vol.
18%
31°C
$314 Vol.
41%
32°C
$36 Vol.
32%
33°C or higher
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus shows the tightest implied probabilities clustered between 31°C and 32°C for Panama City’s September 21 maximum, reflecting substantial forecast uncertainty. A tropical wave near 81°W is enhancing moisture and convective activity across the isthmus, with afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover likely to limit peak insolation and cap temperatures near seasonal norms of 29–32°C. Model guidance diverges on the timing and coverage of showers, directly influencing whether radiative heating reaches the higher end of the range. Updated National Meteorological Service runs and NHC tropical weather discussions over the next 48 hours will provide the key data shifts traders are monitoring ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$515End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus shows the tightest implied probabilities clustered between 31°C and 32°C for Panama City’s September 21 maximum, reflecting substantial forecast uncertainty. A tropical wave near 81°W is enhancing moisture and convective activity across the isthmus, with afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover likely to limit peak insolation and cap temperatures near seasonal norms of 29–32°C. Model guidance diverges on the timing and coverage of showers, directly influencing whether radiative heating reaches the higher end of the range. Updated National Meteorological Service runs and NHC tropical weather discussions over the next 48 hours will provide the key data shifts traders are monitoring ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$515End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus shows the tightest implied probabilities clustered between 31°C and 32°C for Panama City’s September 21 maximum, reflecting substantial forecast uncertainty. A tropical wave near 81°W is enhancing moisture and convective activity across the isthmus, with afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover likely to limit peak insolation and cap temperatures near seasonal norms of 29–32°C. Model guidance diverges on the timing and coverage of showers, directly influencing whether radiative heating reaches the higher end of the range. Updated National Meteorological Service runs and NHC tropical weather discussions over the next 48 hours will provide the key data shifts traders are monitoring ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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