Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and light easterly to southeasterly winds on September 19 under stable high-pressure conditions, supporting a daily maximum near 28–29 °C. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 29 °C (60 %) and 30 °C (26.5 %), as dry air and strong September insolation allow efficient daytime heating while a modest northerly flow prevents further warming. Climatologically, the date’s 1991–2020 average high is 25.7 °C, so current guidance reflects a modest positive anomaly without the extreme heat seen earlier in the month. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow range of model outputs, with limited upside risk from any late intensification of the ridge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 19?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 19?
29°C 64%
30°C 29%
28°C 9%
31°C 3%
NEW
$12,395 Vol.
NEW
$12,395 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C
9%
29°C
64%
30°C
29%
31°C
3%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 64%
30°C 29%
28°C 9%
31°C 3%
NEW
$12,395 Vol.
NEW
$12,395 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
24°C or below
$1,126 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$938 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$5 Vol.
2%
27°C
$181 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,164 Vol.
9%
29°C
$3,623 Vol.
64%
30°C
$3,456 Vol.
29%
31°C
$843 Vol.
3%
32°C
$185 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$774 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$100 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and light easterly to southeasterly winds on September 19 under stable high-pressure conditions, supporting a daily maximum near 28–29 °C. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 29 °C (60 %) and 30 °C (26.5 %), as dry air and strong September insolation allow efficient daytime heating while a modest northerly flow prevents further warming. Climatologically, the date’s 1991–2020 average high is 25.7 °C, so current guidance reflects a modest positive anomaly without the extreme heat seen earlier in the month. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow range of model outputs, with limited upside risk from any late intensification of the ridge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$12,395End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and light easterly to southeasterly winds on September 19 under stable high-pressure conditions, supporting a daily maximum near 28–29 °C. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 29 °C (60 %) and 30 °C (26.5 %), as dry air and strong September insolation allow efficient daytime heating while a modest northerly flow prevents further warming. Climatologically, the date’s 1991–2020 average high is 25.7 °C, so current guidance reflects a modest positive anomaly without the extreme heat seen earlier in the month. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow range of model outputs, with limited upside risk from any late intensification of the ridge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,395End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate Madrid will experience clear skies and light easterly to southeasterly winds on September 19 under stable high-pressure conditions, supporting a daily maximum near 28–29 °C. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 29 °C (60 %) and 30 °C (26.5 %), as dry air and strong September insolation allow efficient daytime heating while a modest northerly flow prevents further warming. Climatologically, the date’s 1991–2020 average high is 25.7 °C, so current guidance reflects a modest positive anomaly without the extreme heat seen earlier in the month. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow range of model outputs, with limited upside risk from any late intensification of the ridge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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