Clear skies and light northeasterly winds under high pressure are driving the tight market around 14–15°C for Madrid’s official minimum on September 18. Radiative cooling overnight, typical of the city’s continental climate with its large diurnal range, supports a low near the 15°C forecast consensus from models and AEMET guidance, while minor variations in cloud cover or wind could shift the exact reading by 1°C. Recent days show similar stable conditions with minima of 14.7–19.5°C, and historical September averages near 15°C provide context. Traders weigh these factors against potential measurement timing at the Retiro station, where small deviations in observed cooling rates differentiate the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
12°C or below 99%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
12°C or below
99%
13°C
-
14°C
-
15°C
50%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
12°C or below 99%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
99%
13°C
$61 Vol.
-
14°C
$19 Vol.
-
15°C
$5 Vol.
50%
16°C
$146 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$82 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$82 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$46 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$41 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and light northeasterly winds under high pressure are driving the tight market around 14–15°C for Madrid’s official minimum on September 18. Radiative cooling overnight, typical of the city’s continental climate with its large diurnal range, supports a low near the 15°C forecast consensus from models and AEMET guidance, while minor variations in cloud cover or wind could shift the exact reading by 1°C. Recent days show similar stable conditions with minima of 14.7–19.5°C, and historical September averages near 15°C provide context. Traders weigh these factors against potential measurement timing at the Retiro station, where small deviations in observed cooling rates differentiate the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$498End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and light northeasterly winds under high pressure are driving the tight market around 14–15°C for Madrid’s official minimum on September 18. Radiative cooling overnight, typical of the city’s continental climate with its large diurnal range, supports a low near the 15°C forecast consensus from models and AEMET guidance, while minor variations in cloud cover or wind could shift the exact reading by 1°C. Recent days show similar stable conditions with minima of 14.7–19.5°C, and historical September averages near 15°C provide context. Traders weigh these factors against potential measurement timing at the Retiro station, where small deviations in observed cooling rates differentiate the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$498End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Clear skies and light northeasterly winds under high pressure are driving the tight market around 14–15°C for Madrid’s official minimum on September 18. Radiative cooling overnight, typical of the city’s continental climate with its large diurnal range, supports a low near the 15°C forecast consensus from models and AEMET guidance, while minor variations in cloud cover or wind could shift the exact reading by 1°C. Recent days show similar stable conditions with minima of 14.7–19.5°C, and historical September averages near 15°C provide context. Traders weigh these factors against potential measurement timing at the Retiro station, where small deviations in observed cooling rates differentiate the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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