Recent forecast model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light northeast winds as the main driver keeping Madrid's September 19 minimum near 13–16 °C, close to the long-term average low of 14.9 °C. Stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover favor efficient heat loss after sunset, with dew points around 8–10 °C limiting further drops, while slight variations in wind speed or timing across model runs explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 13–15 °C. No major synoptic shifts are expected before resolution, leaving trader sentiment anchored to these subtle differences in nocturnal boundary-layer cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 19?
15°C 27%
14°C 23%
13°C 21%
12°C or below 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
12°C or below
17%
13°C
21%
14°C
23%
15°C
27%
16°C
14%
17°C
8%
18°C
7%
19°C
5%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
2%
15°C 27%
14°C 23%
13°C 21%
12°C or below 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
17%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
23%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
14%
17°C
$0 Vol.
8%
18°C
$0 Vol.
7%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light northeast winds as the main driver keeping Madrid's September 19 minimum near 13–16 °C, close to the long-term average low of 14.9 °C. Stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover favor efficient heat loss after sunset, with dew points around 8–10 °C limiting further drops, while slight variations in wind speed or timing across model runs explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 13–15 °C. No major synoptic shifts are expected before resolution, leaving trader sentiment anchored to these subtle differences in nocturnal boundary-layer cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light northeast winds as the main driver keeping Madrid's September 19 minimum near 13–16 °C, close to the long-term average low of 14.9 °C. Stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover favor efficient heat loss after sunset, with dew points around 8–10 °C limiting further drops, while slight variations in wind speed or timing across model runs explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 13–15 °C. No major synoptic shifts are expected before resolution, leaving trader sentiment anchored to these subtle differences in nocturnal boundary-layer cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light northeast winds as the main driver keeping Madrid's September 19 minimum near 13–16 °C, close to the long-term average low of 14.9 °C. Stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover favor efficient heat loss after sunset, with dew points around 8–10 °C limiting further drops, while slight variations in wind speed or timing across model runs explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 13–15 °C. No major synoptic shifts are expected before resolution, leaving trader sentiment anchored to these subtle differences in nocturnal boundary-layer cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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