Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across parts of the Southwest and southern Plains, including southern Idaho, northern Nevada, northeastern Oregon, and Texas, amid the warmest June-August on record and widespread below-normal precipitation. High evaporative demand from above-normal temperatures has sustained soil moisture deficits and flash drought intensification in the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Short-term forecasts indicate potential relief from above-normal rainfall along the Eastern Seaboard and Southwest, yet continued dryness and heat across the central and southern U.S. through late September introduce uncertainty in whether D4 areas expand, contract, or shift state boundaries by the week of September 22. These variables explain the tightly balanced market-implied probabilities across state-count bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 22, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 22, 2026?
1-2 states 50.0%
3-4 states 50.0%
5-6 states 50.0%
7-9 states 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
0 states
1%
1-2 states
50%
3-4 states
50%
5-6 states
50%
7-9 states
50%
10 or more states
50%
1-2 states 50.0%
3-4 states 50.0%
5-6 states 50.0%
7-9 states 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
0 states
$25 Vol.
1%
1-2 states
$0 Vol.
50%
3-4 states
$0 Vol.
50%
5-6 states
$0 Vol.
50%
7-9 states
$0 Vol.
50%
10 or more states
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across parts of the Southwest and southern Plains, including southern Idaho, northern Nevada, northeastern Oregon, and Texas, amid the warmest June-August on record and widespread below-normal precipitation. High evaporative demand from above-normal temperatures has sustained soil moisture deficits and flash drought intensification in the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Short-term forecasts indicate potential relief from above-normal rainfall along the Eastern Seaboard and Southwest, yet continued dryness and heat across the central and southern U.S. through late September introduce uncertainty in whether D4 areas expand, contract, or shift state boundaries by the week of September 22. These variables explain the tightly balanced market-implied probabilities across state-count bins.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across parts of the Southwest and southern Plains, including southern Idaho, northern Nevada, northeastern Oregon, and Texas, amid the warmest June-August on record and widespread below-normal precipitation. High evaporative demand from above-normal temperatures has sustained soil moisture deficits and flash drought intensification in the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Short-term forecasts indicate potential relief from above-normal rainfall along the Eastern Seaboard and Southwest, yet continued dryness and heat across the central and southern U.S. through late September introduce uncertainty in whether D4 areas expand, contract, or shift state boundaries by the week of September 22. These variables explain the tightly balanced market-implied probabilities across state-count bins.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$25End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across parts of the Southwest and southern Plains, including southern Idaho, northern Nevada, northeastern Oregon, and Texas, amid the warmest June-August on record and widespread below-normal precipitation. High evaporative demand from above-normal temperatures has sustained soil moisture deficits and flash drought intensification in the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Short-term forecasts indicate potential relief from above-normal rainfall along the Eastern Seaboard and Southwest, yet continued dryness and heat across the central and southern U.S. through late September introduce uncertainty in whether D4 areas expand, contract, or shift state boundaries by the week of September 22. These variables explain the tightly balanced market-implied probabilities across state-count bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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