Recent model consensus from global forecasting systems points to a maximum of 26°C in Mexico City on September 21 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the 50% market-implied probability. This reflects typical late-September conditions at the city's 2,240-meter elevation, where afternoon temperatures moderate amid the tail end of the rainy season, increased cloud cover, and higher humidity. Recent observational trends show limited deviation from climatological baselines, with no strong high-pressure systems or clear-sky episodes pushing readings toward 27°C or above, which holds 35.5% implied odds. Forecast uncertainty remains due to potential convective activity or urban heat effects, though updated runs from agencies like CONAGUA and ECMWF are expected to refine the outlook ahead of the daily peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 21?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 21?
26°C 51%
27°C or higher 36%
25°C 10%
24°C 4.5%
NEW
$16,556 Vol.
NEW
$16,556 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
10%
26°C
51%
27°C or higher
36%
26°C 51%
27°C or higher 36%
25°C 10%
24°C 4.5%
NEW
$16,556 Vol.
NEW
$16,556 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
17°C or below
$424 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,646 Vol.
2%
24°C
$693 Vol.
5%
25°C
$3,752 Vol.
10%
26°C
$3,124 Vol.
51%
27°C or higher
$6,757 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global forecasting systems points to a maximum of 26°C in Mexico City on September 21 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the 50% market-implied probability. This reflects typical late-September conditions at the city's 2,240-meter elevation, where afternoon temperatures moderate amid the tail end of the rainy season, increased cloud cover, and higher humidity. Recent observational trends show limited deviation from climatological baselines, with no strong high-pressure systems or clear-sky episodes pushing readings toward 27°C or above, which holds 35.5% implied odds. Forecast uncertainty remains due to potential convective activity or urban heat effects, though updated runs from agencies like CONAGUA and ECMWF are expected to refine the outlook ahead of the daily peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$16,556End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global forecasting systems points to a maximum of 26°C in Mexico City on September 21 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the 50% market-implied probability. This reflects typical late-September conditions at the city's 2,240-meter elevation, where afternoon temperatures moderate amid the tail end of the rainy season, increased cloud cover, and higher humidity. Recent observational trends show limited deviation from climatological baselines, with no strong high-pressure systems or clear-sky episodes pushing readings toward 27°C or above, which holds 35.5% implied odds. Forecast uncertainty remains due to potential convective activity or urban heat effects, though updated runs from agencies like CONAGUA and ECMWF are expected to refine the outlook ahead of the daily peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,556End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from global forecasting systems points to a maximum of 26°C in Mexico City on September 21 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the 50% market-implied probability. This reflects typical late-September conditions at the city's 2,240-meter elevation, where afternoon temperatures moderate amid the tail end of the rainy season, increased cloud cover, and higher humidity. Recent observational trends show limited deviation from climatological baselines, with no strong high-pressure systems or clear-sky episodes pushing readings toward 27°C or above, which holds 35.5% implied odds. Forecast uncertainty remains due to potential convective activity or urban heat effects, though updated runs from agencies like CONAGUA and ECMWF are expected to refine the outlook ahead of the daily peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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