Persistent heavy rain and strong northeasterly winds from approaching Typhoon Dujuan are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo on September 21, with Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts calling for a 26°C maximum amid 90-100% precipitation chances and overcast skies. This setup favors a narrow range near 25-27°C, as cloud cover and evaporative cooling limit solar radiation while the storm's circulation prevents rapid warming. Ensemble models show minor spread based on exact rain timing and wind gusts, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around these outcomes. Historical September baselines near 25.8°C provide context, though the typhoon introduces greater uncertainty than typical conditions. Updated JMA guidance and radar trends ahead of landfall proximity will refine the final maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 21?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 21?
26°C 28%
27°C 28%
25°C 25%
24°C 16%
NEW
$10,511 Vol.
NEW
$10,511 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
6%
24°C
16%
25°C
25%
26°C
28%
27°C
28%
28°C
5%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 28%
27°C 28%
25°C 25%
24°C 16%
NEW
$10,511 Vol.
NEW
$10,511 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
20°C or below
$111 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$452 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$375 Vol.
2%
23°C
$1,703 Vol.
6%
24°C
$2,324 Vol.
16%
25°C
$1,506 Vol.
25%
26°C
$1,934 Vol.
28%
27°C
$1,515 Vol.
28%
28°C
$675 Vol.
5%
29°C
$241 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$585 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heavy rain and strong northeasterly winds from approaching Typhoon Dujuan are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo on September 21, with Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts calling for a 26°C maximum amid 90-100% precipitation chances and overcast skies. This setup favors a narrow range near 25-27°C, as cloud cover and evaporative cooling limit solar radiation while the storm's circulation prevents rapid warming. Ensemble models show minor spread based on exact rain timing and wind gusts, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around these outcomes. Historical September baselines near 25.8°C provide context, though the typhoon introduces greater uncertainty than typical conditions. Updated JMA guidance and radar trends ahead of landfall proximity will refine the final maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,511End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heavy rain and strong northeasterly winds from approaching Typhoon Dujuan are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo on September 21, with Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts calling for a 26°C maximum amid 90-100% precipitation chances and overcast skies. This setup favors a narrow range near 25-27°C, as cloud cover and evaporative cooling limit solar radiation while the storm's circulation prevents rapid warming. Ensemble models show minor spread based on exact rain timing and wind gusts, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around these outcomes. Historical September baselines near 25.8°C provide context, though the typhoon introduces greater uncertainty than typical conditions. Updated JMA guidance and radar trends ahead of landfall proximity will refine the final maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,511End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heavy rain and strong northeasterly winds from approaching Typhoon Dujuan are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo on September 21, with Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts calling for a 26°C maximum amid 90-100% precipitation chances and overcast skies. This setup favors a narrow range near 25-27°C, as cloud cover and evaporative cooling limit solar radiation while the storm's circulation prevents rapid warming. Ensemble models show minor spread based on exact rain timing and wind gusts, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around these outcomes. Historical September baselines near 25.8°C provide context, though the typhoon introduces greater uncertainty than typical conditions. Updated JMA guidance and radar trends ahead of landfall proximity will refine the final maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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