Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles show consensus for a September 22 high temperature near 30°C in Beijing, driven by southwesterly flow under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with limited moisture. This positions 30°C as the market leader at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 31°C at 29%, reflecting slight model spread on daytime heating amid possible scattered light showers that could cap peaks near 29°C in some runs. Current observations indicate a warming trend from mid-September averages, though increasing cloud cover and weak frontal influences introduce realistic downside risk to 29°C or lower. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria tied to official station maxima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 22?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 22?
30°C 45%
31°C 30%
29°C 20%
32°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
5%
29°C
20%
30°C
45%
31°C
30%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 45%
31°C 30%
29°C 20%
32°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
25°C or below
$100 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$116 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$91 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$269 Vol.
5%
29°C
$779 Vol.
20%
30°C
$1,260 Vol.
45%
31°C
$763 Vol.
30%
32°C
$241 Vol.
5%
33°C
$5 Vol.
2%
34°C
$78 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$105 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles show consensus for a September 22 high temperature near 30°C in Beijing, driven by southwesterly flow under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with limited moisture. This positions 30°C as the market leader at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 31°C at 29%, reflecting slight model spread on daytime heating amid possible scattered light showers that could cap peaks near 29°C in some runs. Current observations indicate a warming trend from mid-September averages, though increasing cloud cover and weak frontal influences introduce realistic downside risk to 29°C or lower. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria tied to official station maxima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,806End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles show consensus for a September 22 high temperature near 30°C in Beijing, driven by southwesterly flow under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with limited moisture. This positions 30°C as the market leader at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 31°C at 29%, reflecting slight model spread on daytime heating amid possible scattered light showers that could cap peaks near 29°C in some runs. Current observations indicate a warming trend from mid-September averages, though increasing cloud cover and weak frontal influences introduce realistic downside risk to 29°C or lower. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria tied to official station maxima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,806End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles show consensus for a September 22 high temperature near 30°C in Beijing, driven by southwesterly flow under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with limited moisture. This positions 30°C as the market leader at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 31°C at 29%, reflecting slight model spread on daytime heating amid possible scattered light showers that could cap peaks near 29°C in some runs. Current observations indicate a warming trend from mid-September averages, though increasing cloud cover and weak frontal influences introduce realistic downside risk to 29°C or lower. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria tied to official station maxima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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