Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a high near 27–28°C in Qingdao on September 20 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds shifting northerly, consistent with typical late-September conditions influenced by regional high pressure. Model consensus supports limited intensification potential due to modest moisture and stable steering patterns, though minor disagreements between runs introduce uncertainty around peak readings. Trader emphasis on 31°C as the leading outcome reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of possible warmer anomalies or verification nuances in official station data, while lower probabilities for 29°C or below align with the narrow historical range near seasonal averages of 26°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours could refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 20?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 20?
31°C 37%
30°C 21%
32°C or higher 21.0%
29°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
5%
27°C
3%
28°C
6%
29°C
16%
30°C
21%
31°C
37%
32°C or higher
23%
31°C 37%
30°C 21%
32°C or higher 21.0%
29°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
22°C or below
$181 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
5%
27°C
$5 Vol.
3%
28°C
$217 Vol.
6%
29°C
$0 Vol.
16%
30°C
$0 Vol.
21%
31°C
$8 Vol.
37%
32°C or higher
$62 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a high near 27–28°C in Qingdao on September 20 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds shifting northerly, consistent with typical late-September conditions influenced by regional high pressure. Model consensus supports limited intensification potential due to modest moisture and stable steering patterns, though minor disagreements between runs introduce uncertainty around peak readings. Trader emphasis on 31°C as the leading outcome reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of possible warmer anomalies or verification nuances in official station data, while lower probabilities for 29°C or below align with the narrow historical range near seasonal averages of 26°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$596End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a high near 27–28°C in Qingdao on September 20 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds shifting northerly, consistent with typical late-September conditions influenced by regional high pressure. Model consensus supports limited intensification potential due to modest moisture and stable steering patterns, though minor disagreements between runs introduce uncertainty around peak readings. Trader emphasis on 31°C as the leading outcome reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of possible warmer anomalies or verification nuances in official station data, while lower probabilities for 29°C or below align with the narrow historical range near seasonal averages of 26°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$596End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a high near 27–28°C in Qingdao on September 20 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds shifting northerly, consistent with typical late-September conditions influenced by regional high pressure. Model consensus supports limited intensification potential due to modest moisture and stable steering patterns, though minor disagreements between runs introduce uncertainty around peak readings. Trader emphasis on 31°C as the leading outcome reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of possible warmer anomalies or verification nuances in official station data, while lower probabilities for 29°C or below align with the narrow historical range near seasonal averages of 26°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours could refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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