Forecasts for Mexico City on September 20 point to overnight lows near 12–14°C under persistent cloud cover and scattered light rain, consistent with typical late-September conditions at 2,240 m elevation where radiative cooling is limited. Multiple models show similar ranges, with cloudiness and humidity moderating temperature drops compared to clearer nights that could push readings toward single digits. This supports market-implied odds clustering around mid-teens while the near-even split between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes reflects trader caution over forecast spread, potential microclimate differences at official stations, and the narrow window for last-minute model shifts before resolution. Historical September minima average near 13°C, underscoring how modest variations in overnight moisture or wind can differentiate the close probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 20?
7°C or below 84%
17°C or higher 84%
14°C 40%
12°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
7°C or below
84%
8°C
38%
9°C
38%
10°C
38%
11°C
38%
12°C
39%
13°C
39%
14°C
40%
15°C
27%
16°C
12%
17°C or higher
84%
7°C or below 84%
17°C or higher 84%
14°C 40%
12°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
84%
8°C
$0 Vol.
38%
9°C
$0 Vol.
38%
10°C
$0 Vol.
38%
11°C
$0 Vol.
38%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$15 Vol.
12%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts for Mexico City on September 20 point to overnight lows near 12–14°C under persistent cloud cover and scattered light rain, consistent with typical late-September conditions at 2,240 m elevation where radiative cooling is limited. Multiple models show similar ranges, with cloudiness and humidity moderating temperature drops compared to clearer nights that could push readings toward single digits. This supports market-implied odds clustering around mid-teens while the near-even split between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes reflects trader caution over forecast spread, potential microclimate differences at official stations, and the narrow window for last-minute model shifts before resolution. Historical September minima average near 13°C, underscoring how modest variations in overnight moisture or wind can differentiate the close probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$15End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts for Mexico City on September 20 point to overnight lows near 12–14°C under persistent cloud cover and scattered light rain, consistent with typical late-September conditions at 2,240 m elevation where radiative cooling is limited. Multiple models show similar ranges, with cloudiness and humidity moderating temperature drops compared to clearer nights that could push readings toward single digits. This supports market-implied odds clustering around mid-teens while the near-even split between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes reflects trader caution over forecast spread, potential microclimate differences at official stations, and the narrow window for last-minute model shifts before resolution. Historical September minima average near 13°C, underscoring how modest variations in overnight moisture or wind can differentiate the close probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts for Mexico City on September 20 point to overnight lows near 12–14°C under persistent cloud cover and scattered light rain, consistent with typical late-September conditions at 2,240 m elevation where radiative cooling is limited. Multiple models show similar ranges, with cloudiness and humidity moderating temperature drops compared to clearer nights that could push readings toward single digits. This supports market-implied odds clustering around mid-teens while the near-even split between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes reflects trader caution over forecast spread, potential microclimate differences at official stations, and the narrow window for last-minute model shifts before resolution. Historical September minima average near 13°C, underscoring how modest variations in overnight moisture or wind can differentiate the close probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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