Current NWS and ensemble model guidance points to a Friday high near 97–99 °F in Austin under persistent upper-level ridging, producing the tight clustering around the 96–101 °F bins. Light southeast winds, dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will allow strong afternoon heating, while any increase in cloud cover or subtle moisture advection could shave a degree or two. Historical September averages near 91 °F underscore the anomalous warmth, yet forecast spread remains modest because resolution hinges on precise maximum temperature timing rather than larger-scale pattern shifts. Updated model runs and NWS point forecasts through Thursday will be the next key inputs for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 18?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 18?
96-97°F 37%
98-99°F 37%
100-101°F 33%
94-95°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
87°F or below
5%
88-89°F
5%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
19%
96-97°F
37%
98-99°F
37%
100-101°F
33%
102-103°F
19%
104-105°F
5%
106°F or higher
6%
96-97°F 37%
98-99°F 37%
100-101°F 33%
94-95°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
87°F or below
$0 Vol.
5%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
5%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
7%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
10%
94-95°F
$16 Vol.
19%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
37%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
37%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
33%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
19%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
5%
106°F or higher
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current NWS and ensemble model guidance points to a Friday high near 97–99 °F in Austin under persistent upper-level ridging, producing the tight clustering around the 96–101 °F bins. Light southeast winds, dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will allow strong afternoon heating, while any increase in cloud cover or subtle moisture advection could shave a degree or two. Historical September averages near 91 °F underscore the anomalous warmth, yet forecast spread remains modest because resolution hinges on precise maximum temperature timing rather than larger-scale pattern shifts. Updated model runs and NWS point forecasts through Thursday will be the next key inputs for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$16End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current NWS and ensemble model guidance points to a Friday high near 97–99 °F in Austin under persistent upper-level ridging, producing the tight clustering around the 96–101 °F bins. Light southeast winds, dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will allow strong afternoon heating, while any increase in cloud cover or subtle moisture advection could shave a degree or two. Historical September averages near 91 °F underscore the anomalous warmth, yet forecast spread remains modest because resolution hinges on precise maximum temperature timing rather than larger-scale pattern shifts. Updated model runs and NWS point forecasts through Thursday will be the next key inputs for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current NWS and ensemble model guidance points to a Friday high near 97–99 °F in Austin under persistent upper-level ridging, producing the tight clustering around the 96–101 °F bins. Light southeast winds, dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will allow strong afternoon heating, while any increase in cloud cover or subtle moisture advection could shave a degree or two. Historical September averages near 91 °F underscore the anomalous warmth, yet forecast spread remains modest because resolution hinges on precise maximum temperature timing rather than larger-scale pattern shifts. Updated model runs and NWS point forecasts through Thursday will be the next key inputs for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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