Forecast models from sources including the ECMWF and GFS indicate stable easterly flow over Hong Kong on September 16, with partly cloudy skies, moderate humidity around 65-75%, and light to moderate winds limiting strong daytime heating. This setup supports daily maxima near or slightly above the September climatological average of 30.1°C, with ensemble guidance clustering around 28-31°C. Trader consensus reflected in the close 30-32°C outcomes captures uncertainty in exact cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any localized sea-breeze effects that could shift the peak by 1-2°C. Low precipitation probability further reduces cooling potential, while no major synoptic changes are expected before the market resolves based on Hong Kong Observatory observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 16?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 16?
31°C 38%
30°C 28%
32°C 21%
29°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
3%
29°C
9%
30°C
28%
31°C
38%
32°C
21%
33°C
4%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 38%
30°C 28%
32°C 21%
29°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
25°C or below
$234 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$173 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$40 Vol.
3%
28°C
$165 Vol.
3%
29°C
$137 Vol.
9%
30°C
$98 Vol.
28%
31°C
$152 Vol.
38%
32°C
$429 Vol.
21%
33°C
$181 Vol.
4%
34°C
$82 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$128 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models from sources including the ECMWF and GFS indicate stable easterly flow over Hong Kong on September 16, with partly cloudy skies, moderate humidity around 65-75%, and light to moderate winds limiting strong daytime heating. This setup supports daily maxima near or slightly above the September climatological average of 30.1°C, with ensemble guidance clustering around 28-31°C. Trader consensus reflected in the close 30-32°C outcomes captures uncertainty in exact cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any localized sea-breeze effects that could shift the peak by 1-2°C. Low precipitation probability further reduces cooling potential, while no major synoptic changes are expected before the market resolves based on Hong Kong Observatory observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,820End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models from sources including the ECMWF and GFS indicate stable easterly flow over Hong Kong on September 16, with partly cloudy skies, moderate humidity around 65-75%, and light to moderate winds limiting strong daytime heating. This setup supports daily maxima near or slightly above the September climatological average of 30.1°C, with ensemble guidance clustering around 28-31°C. Trader consensus reflected in the close 30-32°C outcomes captures uncertainty in exact cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any localized sea-breeze effects that could shift the peak by 1-2°C. Low precipitation probability further reduces cooling potential, while no major synoptic changes are expected before the market resolves based on Hong Kong Observatory observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,820End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the ECMWF and GFS indicate stable easterly flow over Hong Kong on September 16, with partly cloudy skies, moderate humidity around 65-75%, and light to moderate winds limiting strong daytime heating. This setup supports daily maxima near or slightly above the September climatological average of 30.1°C, with ensemble guidance clustering around 28-31°C. Trader consensus reflected in the close 30-32°C outcomes captures uncertainty in exact cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any localized sea-breeze effects that could shift the peak by 1-2°C. Low precipitation probability further reduces cooling potential, while no major synoptic changes are expected before the market resolves based on Hong Kong Observatory observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions