Latest forecast models point to a minimum temperature of 13–14°C in São Paulo on September 16, driven by persistent high pressure, southeasterly flow, and limited overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies with light winds. Official and ensemble guidance, including runs showing 12–14°C lows, reflect stable conditions without a significant cold air mass or clear-sky enhancement that could push readings lower. Trader consensus clusters tightly on 13°C and 14°C outcomes because small variations in cloud timing or wind speed can shift the exact minimum by 1°C, while probabilities for 9°C or below remain lower given the absence of polar air intrusions typical in deeper winter patterns. Updated model runs and local observations will refine these thresholds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 16?
9°C or below 65%
19°C or higher 65%
11°C 39%
12°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
9°C or below
65%
10°C
11%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
28%
14°C
27%
15°C
22%
16°C
39%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C or higher
65%
9°C or below 65%
19°C or higher 65%
11°C 39%
12°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
65%
10°C
$33 Vol.
11%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
28%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models point to a minimum temperature of 13–14°C in São Paulo on September 16, driven by persistent high pressure, southeasterly flow, and limited overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies with light winds. Official and ensemble guidance, including runs showing 12–14°C lows, reflect stable conditions without a significant cold air mass or clear-sky enhancement that could push readings lower. Trader consensus clusters tightly on 13°C and 14°C outcomes because small variations in cloud timing or wind speed can shift the exact minimum by 1°C, while probabilities for 9°C or below remain lower given the absence of polar air intrusions typical in deeper winter patterns. Updated model runs and local observations will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$33End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models point to a minimum temperature of 13–14°C in São Paulo on September 16, driven by persistent high pressure, southeasterly flow, and limited overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies with light winds. Official and ensemble guidance, including runs showing 12–14°C lows, reflect stable conditions without a significant cold air mass or clear-sky enhancement that could push readings lower. Trader consensus clusters tightly on 13°C and 14°C outcomes because small variations in cloud timing or wind speed can shift the exact minimum by 1°C, while probabilities for 9°C or below remain lower given the absence of polar air intrusions typical in deeper winter patterns. Updated model runs and local observations will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast models point to a minimum temperature of 13–14°C in São Paulo on September 16, driven by persistent high pressure, southeasterly flow, and limited overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies with light winds. Official and ensemble guidance, including runs showing 12–14°C lows, reflect stable conditions without a significant cold air mass or clear-sky enhancement that could push readings lower. Trader consensus clusters tightly on 13°C and 14°C outcomes because small variations in cloud timing or wind speed can shift the exact minimum by 1°C, while probabilities for 9°C or below remain lower given the absence of polar air intrusions typical in deeper winter patterns. Updated model runs and local observations will refine these thresholds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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