Trader sentiment for Sao Paulo’s September 15 minimum temperature shows near-even odds across 12–14°C and warmer bins, reflecting genuine model spread rather than a single dominant signal. Mid-September climatology favors minima near 13–15°C as the Southern Hemisphere spring advances, yet current ensemble forecasts from agencies such as INMET and ECMWF diverge on the strength of nocturnal radiational cooling versus residual moisture and light northerly flow. Clearer skies and lighter winds would favor the lower outcomes, while increased cloud cover or a subtle warm advection pattern supports the 20°C-or-higher probability. New model runs and evening observations expected within the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 15?
20°C or higher 66%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
13°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
10°C or below
15%
11°C
10%
12°C
12%
13°C
27%
14°C
26%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C or higher
66%
20°C or higher 66%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
13°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
15%
11°C
$42 Vol.
10%
12°C
$40 Vol.
12%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
18%
18°C
$0 Vol.
18%
19°C
$0 Vol.
18%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for Sao Paulo’s September 15 minimum temperature shows near-even odds across 12–14°C and warmer bins, reflecting genuine model spread rather than a single dominant signal. Mid-September climatology favors minima near 13–15°C as the Southern Hemisphere spring advances, yet current ensemble forecasts from agencies such as INMET and ECMWF diverge on the strength of nocturnal radiational cooling versus residual moisture and light northerly flow. Clearer skies and lighter winds would favor the lower outcomes, while increased cloud cover or a subtle warm advection pattern supports the 20°C-or-higher probability. New model runs and evening observations expected within the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volume
$82End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for Sao Paulo’s September 15 minimum temperature shows near-even odds across 12–14°C and warmer bins, reflecting genuine model spread rather than a single dominant signal. Mid-September climatology favors minima near 13–15°C as the Southern Hemisphere spring advances, yet current ensemble forecasts from agencies such as INMET and ECMWF diverge on the strength of nocturnal radiational cooling versus residual moisture and light northerly flow. Clearer skies and lighter winds would favor the lower outcomes, while increased cloud cover or a subtle warm advection pattern supports the 20°C-or-higher probability. New model runs and evening observations expected within the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$82End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Sao Paulo’s September 15 minimum temperature shows near-even odds across 12–14°C and warmer bins, reflecting genuine model spread rather than a single dominant signal. Mid-September climatology favors minima near 13–15°C as the Southern Hemisphere spring advances, yet current ensemble forecasts from agencies such as INMET and ECMWF diverge on the strength of nocturnal radiational cooling versus residual moisture and light northerly flow. Clearer skies and lighter winds would favor the lower outcomes, while increased cloud cover or a subtle warm advection pattern supports the 20°C-or-higher probability. New model runs and evening observations expected within the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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