Recent forecast models from multiple agencies converge on a daily high near 31–32 °C for Shenzhen on September 14, with morning showers transitioning to partly cloudy skies by afternoon. Persistent northeasterly flow and elevated humidity from prior days’ rainfall are limiting diurnal heating, while modest cloud cover and scattered convection reduce the chance of stronger insolation that would push readings to 33 °C or above. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical maxima of 30–32 °C under similar moisture regimes, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these two outcomes. Updated model runs and local observations through the weekend will refine the exact peak before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 14?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 14?
31°C 31%
32°C 25%
29°C 19%
28°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
3%
26°C
3%
27°C
3%
28°C
16%
29°C
19%
30°C
16%
31°C
31%
32°C
27%
33°C
14%
34°C
15%
35°C or higher
8%
31°C 31%
32°C 25%
29°C 19%
28°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$0 Vol.
3%
28°C
$0 Vol.
16%
29°C
$0 Vol.
19%
30°C
$0 Vol.
16%
31°C
$0 Vol.
31%
32°C
$98 Vol.
27%
33°C
$6 Vol.
14%
34°C
$108 Vol.
15%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from multiple agencies converge on a daily high near 31–32 °C for Shenzhen on September 14, with morning showers transitioning to partly cloudy skies by afternoon. Persistent northeasterly flow and elevated humidity from prior days’ rainfall are limiting diurnal heating, while modest cloud cover and scattered convection reduce the chance of stronger insolation that would push readings to 33 °C or above. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical maxima of 30–32 °C under similar moisture regimes, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these two outcomes. Updated model runs and local observations through the weekend will refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$211End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from multiple agencies converge on a daily high near 31–32 °C for Shenzhen on September 14, with morning showers transitioning to partly cloudy skies by afternoon. Persistent northeasterly flow and elevated humidity from prior days’ rainfall are limiting diurnal heating, while modest cloud cover and scattered convection reduce the chance of stronger insolation that would push readings to 33 °C or above. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical maxima of 30–32 °C under similar moisture regimes, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these two outcomes. Updated model runs and local observations through the weekend will refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$211End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from multiple agencies converge on a daily high near 31–32 °C for Shenzhen on September 14, with morning showers transitioning to partly cloudy skies by afternoon. Persistent northeasterly flow and elevated humidity from prior days’ rainfall are limiting diurnal heating, while modest cloud cover and scattered convection reduce the chance of stronger insolation that would push readings to 33 °C or above. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical maxima of 30–32 °C under similar moisture regimes, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these two outcomes. Updated model runs and local observations through the weekend will refine the exact peak before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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