Ensemble forecasts from the National Weather Service and NOAA models currently favor overnight lows in the mid-70s across Austin, driven by a persistent warm, moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico combined with light southerly flow that limits radiative cooling. Clear to partly cloudy skies and elevated dew points are expected to keep minimum temperatures from dropping sharply, though subtle model disagreements on cloud cover and wind speed create the tight clustering around 74–77°F outcomes. Historical September baselines show typical minima near 70°F, with occasional cooler intrusions from weak fronts; traders appear to weigh the current pattern’s stability against potential forecast revisions in the next 12–24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 16?
88°F or higher 75%
69°F or below 63%
74-75°F 40%
78-79°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
69°F or below
63%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
24%
74-75°F
33%
76-77°F
30%
78-79°F
39%
80-81°F
39%
82-83°F
39%
84-85°F
39%
86-87°F
39%
88°F or higher
75%
88°F or higher 75%
69°F or below 63%
74-75°F 40%
78-79°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
63%
70-71°F
$567 Vol.
9%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
24%
74-75°F
$6 Vol.
33%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
30%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
39%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
39%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
39%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
39%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
39%
88°F or higher
$0 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from the National Weather Service and NOAA models currently favor overnight lows in the mid-70s across Austin, driven by a persistent warm, moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico combined with light southerly flow that limits radiative cooling. Clear to partly cloudy skies and elevated dew points are expected to keep minimum temperatures from dropping sharply, though subtle model disagreements on cloud cover and wind speed create the tight clustering around 74–77°F outcomes. Historical September baselines show typical minima near 70°F, with occasional cooler intrusions from weak fronts; traders appear to weigh the current pattern’s stability against potential forecast revisions in the next 12–24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$573End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from the National Weather Service and NOAA models currently favor overnight lows in the mid-70s across Austin, driven by a persistent warm, moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico combined with light southerly flow that limits radiative cooling. Clear to partly cloudy skies and elevated dew points are expected to keep minimum temperatures from dropping sharply, though subtle model disagreements on cloud cover and wind speed create the tight clustering around 74–77°F outcomes. Historical September baselines show typical minima near 70°F, with occasional cooler intrusions from weak fronts; traders appear to weigh the current pattern’s stability against potential forecast revisions in the next 12–24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$573End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from the National Weather Service and NOAA models currently favor overnight lows in the mid-70s across Austin, driven by a persistent warm, moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico combined with light southerly flow that limits radiative cooling. Clear to partly cloudy skies and elevated dew points are expected to keep minimum temperatures from dropping sharply, though subtle model disagreements on cloud cover and wind speed create the tight clustering around 74–77°F outcomes. Historical September baselines show typical minima near 70°F, with occasional cooler intrusions from weak fronts; traders appear to weigh the current pattern’s stability against potential forecast revisions in the next 12–24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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