Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's September 17 high will likely fall between 29–31°C amid scattered thunderstorms and high humidity driven by the intertropical convergence zone and localized convection. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation associated with the southwest monsoon and easterlies are suppressing peak temperatures, consistent with near-normal rainfall patterns over much of Luzon despite the ongoing moderate-to-strong El Niño, which favors warmer baselines but currently supports unsettled conditions. Trader consensus around 31–32°C reflects model agreement on these moderating effects, with slight upward bias from historical September averages near 29–30°C and potential for brief clear periods to allow brief warming. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings ahead of the date remain key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 17?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 17?
32°C 34%
31°C 31%
34°C 18%
33°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
4%
28°C
5%
29°C
7%
30°C
11%
31°C
31%
32°C
34%
33°C
11%
34°C
18%
35°C
5%
36°C or higher
1%
32°C 34%
31°C 31%
34°C 18%
33°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
26°C or below
$117 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C
$0 Vol.
5%
29°C
$0 Vol.
7%
30°C
$8 Vol.
11%
31°C
$0 Vol.
31%
32°C
$36 Vol.
34%
33°C
$0 Vol.
11%
34°C
$0 Vol.
18%
35°C
$0 Vol.
5%
36°C or higher
$111 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's September 17 high will likely fall between 29–31°C amid scattered thunderstorms and high humidity driven by the intertropical convergence zone and localized convection. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation associated with the southwest monsoon and easterlies are suppressing peak temperatures, consistent with near-normal rainfall patterns over much of Luzon despite the ongoing moderate-to-strong El Niño, which favors warmer baselines but currently supports unsettled conditions. Trader consensus around 31–32°C reflects model agreement on these moderating effects, with slight upward bias from historical September averages near 29–30°C and potential for brief clear periods to allow brief warming. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings ahead of the date remain key variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$273End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's September 17 high will likely fall between 29–31°C amid scattered thunderstorms and high humidity driven by the intertropical convergence zone and localized convection. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation associated with the southwest monsoon and easterlies are suppressing peak temperatures, consistent with near-normal rainfall patterns over much of Luzon despite the ongoing moderate-to-strong El Niño, which favors warmer baselines but currently supports unsettled conditions. Trader consensus around 31–32°C reflects model agreement on these moderating effects, with slight upward bias from historical September averages near 29–30°C and potential for brief clear periods to allow brief warming. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings ahead of the date remain key variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$273End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's September 17 high will likely fall between 29–31°C amid scattered thunderstorms and high humidity driven by the intertropical convergence zone and localized convection. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation associated with the southwest monsoon and easterlies are suppressing peak temperatures, consistent with near-normal rainfall patterns over much of Luzon despite the ongoing moderate-to-strong El Niño, which favors warmer baselines but currently supports unsettled conditions. Trader consensus around 31–32°C reflects model agreement on these moderating effects, with slight upward bias from historical September averages near 29–30°C and potential for brief clear periods to allow brief warming. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings ahead of the date remain key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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