Trader consensus, with 31°C and 32°C tied at 30.5% implied probability, reflects ensemble forecast models projecting a daily maximum temperature near that narrow threshold for Hong Kong on September 15. Subtropical high pressure and light southerly flow are expected to limit daytime mixing and cloud cover, while urban heat retention and low wind speeds support modest warming above the seasonal climatological average of roughly 31°C. Minor variations in model guidance on boundary-layer moisture and incoming solar radiation create the tight spread between these outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to 30°C or 33°C. The Hong Kong Observatory’s official observation at the reference station will resolve the market once data are finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 15?
32°C 30%
31°C 29%
30°C 21%
33°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
10%
30°C
21%
31°C
29%
32°C
30%
33°C
11%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
32°C 30%
31°C 29%
30°C 21%
33°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
25°C or below
$242 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$124 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$62 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,295 Vol.
1%
29°C
$859 Vol.
10%
30°C
$509 Vol.
21%
31°C
$918 Vol.
29%
32°C
$1,077 Vol.
30%
33°C
$1,036 Vol.
11%
34°C
$978 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$280 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus, with 31°C and 32°C tied at 30.5% implied probability, reflects ensemble forecast models projecting a daily maximum temperature near that narrow threshold for Hong Kong on September 15. Subtropical high pressure and light southerly flow are expected to limit daytime mixing and cloud cover, while urban heat retention and low wind speeds support modest warming above the seasonal climatological average of roughly 31°C. Minor variations in model guidance on boundary-layer moisture and incoming solar radiation create the tight spread between these outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to 30°C or 33°C. The Hong Kong Observatory’s official observation at the reference station will resolve the market once data are finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Volume
$7,380End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus, with 31°C and 32°C tied at 30.5% implied probability, reflects ensemble forecast models projecting a daily maximum temperature near that narrow threshold for Hong Kong on September 15. Subtropical high pressure and light southerly flow are expected to limit daytime mixing and cloud cover, while urban heat retention and low wind speeds support modest warming above the seasonal climatological average of roughly 31°C. Minor variations in model guidance on boundary-layer moisture and incoming solar radiation create the tight spread between these outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to 30°C or 33°C. The Hong Kong Observatory’s official observation at the reference station will resolve the market once data are finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,380End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus, with 31°C and 32°C tied at 30.5% implied probability, reflects ensemble forecast models projecting a daily maximum temperature near that narrow threshold for Hong Kong on September 15. Subtropical high pressure and light southerly flow are expected to limit daytime mixing and cloud cover, while urban heat retention and low wind speeds support modest warming above the seasonal climatological average of roughly 31°C. Minor variations in model guidance on boundary-layer moisture and incoming solar radiation create the tight spread between these outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to 30°C or 33°C. The Hong Kong Observatory’s official observation at the reference station will resolve the market once data are finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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