**Trader consensus heavily favors 32°C as the highest temperature in Manila on September 16, 2026 (62% implied probability), followed by 33°C (29.5%), reflecting typical southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions during the rainy season.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple model runs indicate partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon. These conditions limit peak solar heating through persistent cloud cover and convective activity, keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly above the September climatological average of ~31°C. Forecasts from sources such as WeatherBug, GFS-based models, and others show daytime highs clustering around 30–31°C (84–87°F), with brief clearing periods potentially allowing brief spikes toward 32°C before afternoon convection develops. High humidity (often 75–85%) and light winds further moderate extremes by enhancing evaporative cooling and preventing strong surface heating. No significant tropical cyclone or anomalous high-pressure setup is influencing the region, maintaining the typical pattern of monsoon-driven variability. Market-implied odds align with this setup, pricing in the likelihood of a modest exceedance of the monthly mean while assigning low probability to 34°C+ outcomes that would require unusually clear, stable conditions. Updated PAGASA advisories and afternoon model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 16?
32°C 61%
33°C 29%
34°C 8%
26°C or below <1%
NEW
$34,637 Vol.
NEW
$34,637 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
61%
33°C
29%
34°C
8%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 61%
33°C 29%
34°C 8%
26°C or below <1%
NEW
$34,637 Vol.
NEW
$34,637 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
26°C or below
$387 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$814 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,392 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,829 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$4,946 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$10,158 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$6,100 Vol.
61%
33°C
$6,437 Vol.
29%
34°C
$1,824 Vol.
8%
35°C
$507 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$241 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors 32°C as the highest temperature in Manila on September 16, 2026 (62% implied probability), followed by 33°C (29.5%), reflecting typical southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions during the rainy season.**
Official PAGASA guidance and multiple model runs indicate partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon. These conditions limit peak solar heating through persistent cloud cover and convective activity, keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly above the September climatological average of ~31°C.
Forecasts from sources such as WeatherBug, GFS-based models, and others show daytime highs clustering around 30–31°C (84–87°F), with brief clearing periods potentially allowing brief spikes toward 32°C before afternoon convection develops. High humidity (often 75–85%) and light winds further moderate extremes by enhancing evaporative cooling and preventing strong surface heating.
No significant tropical cyclone or anomalous high-pressure setup is influencing the region, maintaining the typical pattern of monsoon-driven variability. Market-implied odds align with this setup, pricing in the likelihood of a modest exceedance of the monthly mean while assigning low probability to 34°C+ outcomes that would require unusually clear, stable conditions. Updated PAGASA advisories and afternoon model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in sentiment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$34,637End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors 32°C as the highest temperature in Manila on September 16, 2026 (62% implied probability), followed by 33°C (29.5%), reflecting typical southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions during the rainy season.**
Official PAGASA guidance and multiple model runs indicate partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon. These conditions limit peak solar heating through persistent cloud cover and convective activity, keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly above the September climatological average of ~31°C.
Forecasts from sources such as WeatherBug, GFS-based models, and others show daytime highs clustering around 30–31°C (84–87°F), with brief clearing periods potentially allowing brief spikes toward 32°C before afternoon convection develops. High humidity (often 75–85%) and light winds further moderate extremes by enhancing evaporative cooling and preventing strong surface heating.
No significant tropical cyclone or anomalous high-pressure setup is influencing the region, maintaining the typical pattern of monsoon-driven variability. Market-implied odds align with this setup, pricing in the likelihood of a modest exceedance of the monthly mean while assigning low probability to 34°C+ outcomes that would require unusually clear, stable conditions. Updated PAGASA advisories and afternoon model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in sentiment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34,637End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors 32°C as the highest temperature in Manila on September 16, 2026 (62% implied probability), followed by 33°C (29.5%), reflecting typical southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions during the rainy season.** Official PAGASA guidance and multiple model runs indicate partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon. These conditions limit peak solar heating through persistent cloud cover and convective activity, keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly above the September climatological average of ~31°C. Forecasts from sources such as WeatherBug, GFS-based models, and others show daytime highs clustering around 30–31°C (84–87°F), with brief clearing periods potentially allowing brief spikes toward 32°C before afternoon convection develops. High humidity (often 75–85%) and light winds further moderate extremes by enhancing evaporative cooling and preventing strong surface heating. No significant tropical cyclone or anomalous high-pressure setup is influencing the region, maintaining the typical pattern of monsoon-driven variability. Market-implied odds align with this setup, pricing in the likelihood of a modest exceedance of the monthly mean while assigning low probability to 34°C+ outcomes that would require unusually clear, stable conditions. Updated PAGASA advisories and afternoon model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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