Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 70–73°F in San Francisco on September 17, driven by morning low clouds or patchy fog giving way to partial afternoon clearing under light southerly to westerly winds. This pattern aligns with typical late-summer marine-layer influence that moderates coastal maxima near the 1991–2020 September average of about 71°F. The tight spread between the leading 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins reflects uncertainty in the exact timing of clearing and any residual onshore flow strength, both of which can suppress or allow brief warming. Updated short-range model runs and NWS forecast discussions expected overnight will likely refine the peak temperature and shift market-implied odds accordingly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 17?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 17?
70-71°F 45%
72-73°F 40%
68-69°F 10%
74-75°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
63°F or below
1%
64-65°F
3%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
10%
70-71°F
45%
72-73°F
40%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
2%
82°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 45%
72-73°F 40%
68-69°F 10%
74-75°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
63°F or below
$38 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$34 Vol.
3%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
2%
68-69°F
$295 Vol.
10%
70-71°F
$116 Vol.
45%
72-73°F
$1,565 Vol.
40%
74-75°F
$260 Vol.
7%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
2%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
2%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
2%
82°F or higher
$2,332 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 70–73°F in San Francisco on September 17, driven by morning low clouds or patchy fog giving way to partial afternoon clearing under light southerly to westerly winds. This pattern aligns with typical late-summer marine-layer influence that moderates coastal maxima near the 1991–2020 September average of about 71°F. The tight spread between the leading 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins reflects uncertainty in the exact timing of clearing and any residual onshore flow strength, both of which can suppress or allow brief warming. Updated short-range model runs and NWS forecast discussions expected overnight will likely refine the peak temperature and shift market-implied odds accordingly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,639End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 70–73°F in San Francisco on September 17, driven by morning low clouds or patchy fog giving way to partial afternoon clearing under light southerly to westerly winds. This pattern aligns with typical late-summer marine-layer influence that moderates coastal maxima near the 1991–2020 September average of about 71°F. The tight spread between the leading 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins reflects uncertainty in the exact timing of clearing and any residual onshore flow strength, both of which can suppress or allow brief warming. Updated short-range model runs and NWS forecast discussions expected overnight will likely refine the peak temperature and shift market-implied odds accordingly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,639End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 70–73°F in San Francisco on September 17, driven by morning low clouds or patchy fog giving way to partial afternoon clearing under light southerly to westerly winds. This pattern aligns with typical late-summer marine-layer influence that moderates coastal maxima near the 1991–2020 September average of about 71°F. The tight spread between the leading 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins reflects uncertainty in the exact timing of clearing and any residual onshore flow strength, both of which can suppress or allow brief warming. Updated short-range model runs and NWS forecast discussions expected overnight will likely refine the peak temperature and shift market-implied odds accordingly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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