Recent model runs show notable divergence in Moscow's overnight minimum for September 18, with some ensembles favoring clearer skies and stronger radiational cooling toward 9–12 °C while others incorporate increased cloud cover and light showers from a weak westerly frontal passage that could limit cooling to 13–15 °C. Westerly flow at 3–4 m/s and surface pressure near 1014 hPa support modest temperature moderation, consistent with early-autumn climatology where average lows hover near 8 °C. Traders appear balanced between these scenarios because ensemble spread remains high only 24–48 hours out, with new GFS and ECMWF updates expected to sharpen resolution criteria around the daily minimum recorded by official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 18?
5°C or below 78%
15°C or higher 78%
8°C 40%
9°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
5°C or below
78%
6°C
18%
7°C
18%
8°C
40%
9°C
40%
10°C
40%
11°C
30%
12°C
22%
13°C
40%
14°C
19%
15°C or higher
78%
5°C or below 78%
15°C or higher 78%
8°C 40%
9°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
78%
6°C
$0 Vol.
18%
7°C
$0 Vol.
18%
8°C
$0 Vol.
40%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
30%
12°C
$0 Vol.
22%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs show notable divergence in Moscow's overnight minimum for September 18, with some ensembles favoring clearer skies and stronger radiational cooling toward 9–12 °C while others incorporate increased cloud cover and light showers from a weak westerly frontal passage that could limit cooling to 13–15 °C. Westerly flow at 3–4 m/s and surface pressure near 1014 hPa support modest temperature moderation, consistent with early-autumn climatology where average lows hover near 8 °C. Traders appear balanced between these scenarios because ensemble spread remains high only 24–48 hours out, with new GFS and ECMWF updates expected to sharpen resolution criteria around the daily minimum recorded by official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs show notable divergence in Moscow's overnight minimum for September 18, with some ensembles favoring clearer skies and stronger radiational cooling toward 9–12 °C while others incorporate increased cloud cover and light showers from a weak westerly frontal passage that could limit cooling to 13–15 °C. Westerly flow at 3–4 m/s and surface pressure near 1014 hPa support modest temperature moderation, consistent with early-autumn climatology where average lows hover near 8 °C. Traders appear balanced between these scenarios because ensemble spread remains high only 24–48 hours out, with new GFS and ECMWF updates expected to sharpen resolution criteria around the daily minimum recorded by official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs show notable divergence in Moscow's overnight minimum for September 18, with some ensembles favoring clearer skies and stronger radiational cooling toward 9–12 °C while others incorporate increased cloud cover and light showers from a weak westerly frontal passage that could limit cooling to 13–15 °C. Westerly flow at 3–4 m/s and surface pressure near 1014 hPa support modest temperature moderation, consistent with early-autumn climatology where average lows hover near 8 °C. Traders appear balanced between these scenarios because ensemble spread remains high only 24–48 hours out, with new GFS and ECMWF updates expected to sharpen resolution criteria around the daily minimum recorded by official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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