Recent forecast models, including GFS runs, indicate a daytime maximum near 18–19°C in Moscow on September 18 under variable cloud cover and scattered showers from a weak frontal passage, with afternoon highs likely peaking around 64–68°F (17.8–20°C) depending on exact timing of any rain. This positions 18°C as the market favorite at 42% implied probability, followed closely by 19°C and 17°C, reflecting tight clustering around observed model consensus rather than extremes. Light westerly winds and moderate humidity are expected to moderate temperatures, consistent with early autumn climatology where Moscow averages near 17°C. Updated model outputs and official Roshydromet guidance over the next 48 hours will likely drive any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on September 18?
Highest temperature in Moscow on September 18?
18°C 42%
19°C 26%
17°C 26%
20°C or higher 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
10°C or below
2%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
19%
16°C
18%
17°C
26%
18°C
42%
19°C
26%
20°C or higher
25%
18°C 42%
19°C 26%
17°C 26%
20°C or higher 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
10°C or below
$111 Vol.
2%
11°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$31 Vol.
3%
15°C
$0 Vol.
19%
16°C
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$5 Vol.
42%
19°C
$0 Vol.
26%
20°C or higher
$151 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models, including GFS runs, indicate a daytime maximum near 18–19°C in Moscow on September 18 under variable cloud cover and scattered showers from a weak frontal passage, with afternoon highs likely peaking around 64–68°F (17.8–20°C) depending on exact timing of any rain. This positions 18°C as the market favorite at 42% implied probability, followed closely by 19°C and 17°C, reflecting tight clustering around observed model consensus rather than extremes. Light westerly winds and moderate humidity are expected to moderate temperatures, consistent with early autumn climatology where Moscow averages near 17°C. Updated model outputs and official Roshydromet guidance over the next 48 hours will likely drive any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$391End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models, including GFS runs, indicate a daytime maximum near 18–19°C in Moscow on September 18 under variable cloud cover and scattered showers from a weak frontal passage, with afternoon highs likely peaking around 64–68°F (17.8–20°C) depending on exact timing of any rain. This positions 18°C as the market favorite at 42% implied probability, followed closely by 19°C and 17°C, reflecting tight clustering around observed model consensus rather than extremes. Light westerly winds and moderate humidity are expected to moderate temperatures, consistent with early autumn climatology where Moscow averages near 17°C. Updated model outputs and official Roshydromet guidance over the next 48 hours will likely drive any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$391End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models, including GFS runs, indicate a daytime maximum near 18–19°C in Moscow on September 18 under variable cloud cover and scattered showers from a weak frontal passage, with afternoon highs likely peaking around 64–68°F (17.8–20°C) depending on exact timing of any rain. This positions 18°C as the market favorite at 42% implied probability, followed closely by 19°C and 17°C, reflecting tight clustering around observed model consensus rather than extremes. Light westerly winds and moderate humidity are expected to moderate temperatures, consistent with early autumn climatology where Moscow averages near 17°C. Updated model outputs and official Roshydromet guidance over the next 48 hours will likely drive any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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