Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Miami points to an overnight low in the upper 70s on September 18, driven by persistent high humidity, scattered showers and thunderstorms, and light easterly winds that limit radiational cooling. These conditions align with late-summer climatology, where average minima hover near 77°F, though cloud cover and moisture from tropical moisture plumes can keep readings several degrees warmer. Trader consensus favoring the 76-77°F bin reflects uncertainty in exact overnight cooling rates and potential for brief clear spells, while higher bins account for the risk of limited mixing or stronger onshore flow. Updated model runs and evening observations through September 17 will refine resolution thresholds ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Miami on September 18?
76-77°F 40%
78-79°F 25%
74-75°F 21%
72-73°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
69°F or below
4%
70-71°F
7%
72-73°F
13%
74-75°F
21%
76-77°F
40%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
1%
88°F or higher
1%
76-77°F 40%
78-79°F 25%
74-75°F 21%
72-73°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
4%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
7%
72-73°F
$82 Vol.
13%
74-75°F
$94 Vol.
21%
76-77°F
$384 Vol.
40%
78-79°F
$888 Vol.
25%
80-81°F
$48 Vol.
6%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
11%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
7%
86-87°F
$48 Vol.
1%
88°F or higher
$348 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Miami points to an overnight low in the upper 70s on September 18, driven by persistent high humidity, scattered showers and thunderstorms, and light easterly winds that limit radiational cooling. These conditions align with late-summer climatology, where average minima hover near 77°F, though cloud cover and moisture from tropical moisture plumes can keep readings several degrees warmer. Trader consensus favoring the 76-77°F bin reflects uncertainty in exact overnight cooling rates and potential for brief clear spells, while higher bins account for the risk of limited mixing or stronger onshore flow. Updated model runs and evening observations through September 17 will refine resolution thresholds ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,891End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Miami points to an overnight low in the upper 70s on September 18, driven by persistent high humidity, scattered showers and thunderstorms, and light easterly winds that limit radiational cooling. These conditions align with late-summer climatology, where average minima hover near 77°F, though cloud cover and moisture from tropical moisture plumes can keep readings several degrees warmer. Trader consensus favoring the 76-77°F bin reflects uncertainty in exact overnight cooling rates and potential for brief clear spells, while higher bins account for the risk of limited mixing or stronger onshore flow. Updated model runs and evening observations through September 17 will refine resolution thresholds ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,891End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Miami points to an overnight low in the upper 70s on September 18, driven by persistent high humidity, scattered showers and thunderstorms, and light easterly winds that limit radiational cooling. These conditions align with late-summer climatology, where average minima hover near 77°F, though cloud cover and moisture from tropical moisture plumes can keep readings several degrees warmer. Trader consensus favoring the 76-77°F bin reflects uncertainty in exact overnight cooling rates and potential for brief clear spells, while higher bins account for the risk of limited mixing or stronger onshore flow. Updated model runs and evening observations through September 17 will refine resolution thresholds ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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