Trader consensus on Beijing's September 19 maximum temperature centers on short-range ensemble forecasts showing a narrow clustering around 28–30°C, with 29°C holding the leading implied probability. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of a subtropical high-pressure ridge, which modulates daytime heating and subsidence warming, versus the timing of any frontal passage or increased cloud cover that could suppress the peak by 1–2°C. Seasonal transition in mid-September typically features moderating solar angles and variable humidity from monsoon remnants, while Beijing's urban heat island adds a localized 0.5–1.5°C boost relative to rural baselines. Model spread in global systems creates the close probabilities between 28°C and 30°C, with new runs and observational updates expected to refine the outlook before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 19?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 19?
29°C 33%
28°C 30%
30°C 19%
27°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
6%
27°C
14%
28°C
30%
29°C
33%
30°C
19%
31°C
8%
32°C
6%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 33%
28°C 30%
30°C 19%
27°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
23°C or below
$309 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$13 Vol.
1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
6%
27°C
$22 Vol.
14%
28°C
$187 Vol.
30%
29°C
$10 Vol.
33%
30°C
$13 Vol.
19%
31°C
$10 Vol.
8%
32°C
$24 Vol.
6%
33°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on Beijing's September 19 maximum temperature centers on short-range ensemble forecasts showing a narrow clustering around 28–30°C, with 29°C holding the leading implied probability. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of a subtropical high-pressure ridge, which modulates daytime heating and subsidence warming, versus the timing of any frontal passage or increased cloud cover that could suppress the peak by 1–2°C. Seasonal transition in mid-September typically features moderating solar angles and variable humidity from monsoon remnants, while Beijing's urban heat island adds a localized 0.5–1.5°C boost relative to rural baselines. Model spread in global systems creates the close probabilities between 28°C and 30°C, with new runs and observational updates expected to refine the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$699End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on Beijing's September 19 maximum temperature centers on short-range ensemble forecasts showing a narrow clustering around 28–30°C, with 29°C holding the leading implied probability. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of a subtropical high-pressure ridge, which modulates daytime heating and subsidence warming, versus the timing of any frontal passage or increased cloud cover that could suppress the peak by 1–2°C. Seasonal transition in mid-September typically features moderating solar angles and variable humidity from monsoon remnants, while Beijing's urban heat island adds a localized 0.5–1.5°C boost relative to rural baselines. Model spread in global systems creates the close probabilities between 28°C and 30°C, with new runs and observational updates expected to refine the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$699End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Beijing's September 19 maximum temperature centers on short-range ensemble forecasts showing a narrow clustering around 28–30°C, with 29°C holding the leading implied probability. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of a subtropical high-pressure ridge, which modulates daytime heating and subsidence warming, versus the timing of any frontal passage or increased cloud cover that could suppress the peak by 1–2°C. Seasonal transition in mid-September typically features moderating solar angles and variable humidity from monsoon remnants, while Beijing's urban heat island adds a localized 0.5–1.5°C boost relative to rural baselines. Model spread in global systems creates the close probabilities between 28°C and 30°C, with new runs and observational updates expected to refine the outlook before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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